Game Recap: CHI 1, DET 4, October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

DET4

DET beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.86 expected goals to 1.61. DET outshot CHI 31 to 19. V. Arvidsson scored three for DET. V. Arvidsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Gibson stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
DET	0	1	3	4

1st 5:59CHIC. Bedard0.19 xG
2nd 7:31DETV. Arvidsson0.04 xG
3rd 1:09DETL. RaymondPP0.09 xG
3rd 15:26DETV. Arvidsson0.62 xG
3rd 16:45DETV. ArvidssonEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

CHIDET

19Shots on goal31

1.61Expected goals5.86

45Shot attempts62

175v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play1/4

19Hits22

10Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.61 xGDET 5.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI18 on goal, 1 scored

DET31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:22	1:44
R. Kantserov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:41	1:44
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:32	1:41
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:01	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	2	14:34	0:22
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	2	14:23	1:39
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:02	1:38
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:57	0:21
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:44	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	11:41	0:16
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	22:36	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	24:24	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	21:03	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:44	0:16
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:43	0:19
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	30	27	3	.900	59:16	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Arvidsson	LW	3	1	4	6	1	0	+3	0	17:07	4:06
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+3	0	18:00	4:07
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:49	4:03
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	+2	0	18:02	4:02
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	12:16	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:08	2:26
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:21	2:22
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:46	2:25
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:23	2:07
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:57	0:03
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:31	0:03
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:29	0:03
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	24:17	4:05
W. Wallinder	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	17:27	0:14
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:09	0:03
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	20:26	2:26
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	15:43	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1R. Kantserov15:13C. Bedard15:54T. Teravainen12:57

Line 2J. Greenway12:25R. Greene12:25C. Smith12:03

Line 3P. Kane12:00F. Nazar12:30O. Moore11:22

Line 4T. Bertuzzi11:40A. Frondell10:43R. Donato12:36

Pair 1W. Kaiser19:33A. Levshunov21:45

Pair 2I. Cole18:42A. Vlasic14:20

Pair 3K. Korchinski13:04S. Rinzel14:33

DET

Line 1M. Rasmussen13:59N. Danielson13:21J. Compher11:49

Line 2A. Copp14:19L. Raymond14:01M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:16

Line 3V. Arvidsson12:53A. DeBrincat13:44E. Finnie12:46

Line 4K. Kolesar10:44S. Dries11:34C. Mazur9:26

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:09M. Seider18:12

Pair 2J. Faulk17:53W. Wallinder17:03

Pair 3A. Englund14:32A. Johansson15:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	-125	-105	4	Over
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	-110	-110	4	Over
DET L. Raymond	2.5	-125	-105	2	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.5	+172	-185	0	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	+130	-155	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-150	+125	6	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	-118	+100	1	Under
CHI A. Frondell	1.5	-132	+105	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-145	+130	4	Over
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	+100	-120	1	Under
CHI P. Kane	1.5	-165	+140	1	Under
CHI R. Donato	1.5	+150	-205	1	Under
DET S. Dries	1.5	-125	-105	1	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	+120	-130	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	+170	-200	0	Under

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+400	-475	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+430	-450	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+2400	-10000	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
CHI K. Korchinski	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+191	-240	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+460	-700	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+190	-240	3	Over
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+115	-140	2	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+114	-135	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+200	-215	1	Over
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+280	-300	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+285	-400	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+205	-235	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+100	-110	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+245	-295	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+122	-145	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+220	-255	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+145	-200	1	Over

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+105	-140	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-200	+165	2	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+240	-330	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	-170	+140	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+100	-105	1	Over
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+150	-155	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+175	-240	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-190	+180	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+120	-130	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+205	-280	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+116	-120	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-132	+115	4	Over

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+230	-225	0	Under
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+220	-375	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+240	-280	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+210	-260	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+325	-450	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI S. Knight	27.5	-125	-106	27	Under
DET J. Gibson	20.5	-110	-115	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	+105	–	2	Over
DET M. Seider	1.5	-185	+130	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPatrick Kane CHI Faces DET, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
HometownFrank Nazar CHI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, DET 3.4	CHI 1, DET 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CHI 22.9, DET 31.0	CHI 19, DET 31
Win chance	DET 63%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.8	4	1.09	2	38%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.2	6	0.94	4	32%	3
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	4	0.97	1	30%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.5	2	0.98	1	30%	1
DET M. Seider	2.3	3	0.76	1	12%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.2	0	0.52	0	18%	0
CHI P. Kane	2.1	1	0.80	0	23%	0
CHI R. Kantserov	2.0	1	0.66	1	27%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.0	0	0.53	0	18%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	4	0.57	1	24%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	0	0.71	0	28%	0
DET A. Copp	1.7	1	0.58	0	19%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	0	0.51	0	12%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	1	0.49	0	19%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.46	0	20%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.5	3	0.41	0	18%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	0	0.63	0	22%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	4	0.44	1	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.24	0	8%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	1	0.22	0	5%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.2	1	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.0	3	0.31	0	10%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
DET W. Wallinder	1.0	0	0.28	1	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI J. Greenway	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DET C. Mazur	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.9	3	0.21	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	2	0.23	1	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.23	0	4%	0
CHI I. Cole	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
DET A. Englund	0.5	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.