Game Recap: CHI 5, EDM 2, October 12, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI5

FinalSat, Oct 12, 2024Every game that night

EDM2

CHI beat EDM 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.01 expected goals to 3.49. EDM outshot CHI 38 to 20. T. Teravainen led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). T. Teravainen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. P. Mrazek stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	2	2	5
EDM	0	1	1	2

1st 15:50CHIP. Kurashev0.08 xG
2nd 4:55EDMC. Perry0.23 xG
2nd 10:19CHIS. JonesPP0.09 xG
2nd 13:58CHIC. Bedard0.07 xG
3rd 5:35CHIT. TeravainenPP0.10 xG
3rd 10:01EDML. DraisaitlPP0.28 xG
3rd 19:13CHIT. TeravainenPP0.06 xG

Team Stats

CHIEDM

20Shots on goal38

2.01Expected goals3.49

37Shot attempts95

175v5 shots on goal32

3/3Power play1/3

16Hits9

35Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways9

9Takeaways13

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.01 xGEDM 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI20 on goal, 5 scored

EDM37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	2	2	4	6	0	0	0	0	17:26	1:42
C. Bedard	C	1	2	3	1	0	2	+1	0	18:06	1:42
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:57	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	19:25	1:42
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:23	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:16	1:24
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:15	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:34	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
A. Athanasiou	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:47	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	2	3	3	1	2	+1	2	24:55	1:42
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	0	23:50	0:18
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	+1	0	16:33	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	15:52	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	2	19:11	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	18:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	38	36	2	.947	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	2	23:50	3:58
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	-1	2	23:32	4:18
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:33	4:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:09	0:47
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	9:50	0:44
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:11	4:01
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:25	0:27
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:18	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:06	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	10:03	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:19	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:30	0:06
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	26:56	4:39
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	0	18:21	0:45
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:55	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	16:10	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	14:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	20	15	5	.750	57:32	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Dickinson EDM Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.1, EDM 4.1	CHI 5, EDM 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CHI 22.3, EDM 34.4	CHI 20, EDM 38
Win chance	EDM 79%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	4.1	2	1.11	0	47%	0
EDM C. McDavid	4.0	3	2.02	1	47%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	3.7	1	0.93	0	30%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	1	1.50	1	46%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	1	1.16	0	17%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	1	0.75	3	22%	1
EDM J. Skinner	2.8	2	0.73	1	30%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.4	2	1.08	1	29%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.3	2	0.55	1	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	1	0.57	0	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	4	0.59	1	11%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	3	0.43	3	10%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.9	6	0.59	4	21%	2
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	4	0.37	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.7	0	0.40	0	15%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.6	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	0	0.33	0	16%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	1	0.57	0	25%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.6	3	0.48	1	15%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.5	3	0.35	0	12%	0
CHI A. Athanasiou	1.5	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.4	2	0.32	0	15%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	3	0.35	1	17%	1
EDM M. Janmark	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	0	0.25	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	3	0.29	0	4%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.1	3	0.34	0	4%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	1	0.15	0	6%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.8	0	0.20	1	4%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.8	2	0.17	0	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	1	0.20	0	7%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	0	0.22	1	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.25	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.