Game Recap: CHI 1, EDM 3, April 2, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 3.08. EDM outshot CHI 38 to 18. C. McDavid had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. T. Jarry stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	1	1
EDM	0	2	1	3

2nd 5:32EDMA. Henrique0.05 xG
2nd 12:13EDMM. SavoiePP0.17 xG
3rd 5:06CHIN. Lardis0.22 xG
3rd 18:59EDMV. PodkolzinEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

CHIEDM

18Shots on goal38

3.08Expected goals4.68

58Shot attempts69

145v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play1/3

9Hits18

14Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways12

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.08 xGEDM 4.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI18 on goal, 1 scored

EDM39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:14	1:54
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:17	1:51
N. Lardis	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	13:35	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:45	1:48
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:43	0:06
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:41	1:48
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:21	1:57
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:49	0:09
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:16	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:35	0:03
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:49	0:00
S. Boisvert	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:10	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:01	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	21:03	0:12
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:01	0:12
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:44	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:37	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	32	31	1	.969	53:21	Loss
A. Soderblom	5	4	1	.800	4:57

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	2	22:24	5:03
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	19:07	5:02
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:11	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	3	2	3	+1	0	14:53	0:08
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	4	4	1	0	0	14:38	3:01
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	12:28	0:11
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:29	5:05
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:40	2:12
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	15:43	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:09	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	23:11	4:28
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	21:01	0:10
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	20:14	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:13	0:45
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:26	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	18	17	1	.944	59:37	Win
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi15:52I. Mikheyev17:08A. Frondell13:42

Line 2C. Bedard16:15N. Lardis13:12T. Teravainen12:56

Line 3F. Nazar12:21R. Donato12:34R. Greene14:00

Line 4L. Slaggert7:54S. Boisvert7:10A. Burakovsky8:49

Pair 1S. Rinzel17:41W. Kaiser18:27

Pair 2A. Vlasic17:46L. Crevier19:15

Pair 3K. Korchinski14:25E. Mastro14:03

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid15:15V. Podkolzin14:06M. Savoie13:10

Line 2K. Kapanen13:43J. Dickinson13:15T. Frederic13:13

Line 3Z. Hyman13:19R. Nugent-Hopkins13:51J. Roslovic11:37

Line 4A. Henrique11:18J. Samanski10:02M. Jones10:02

Pair 1C. Murphy18:06D. Nurse18:03

Pair 2J. Walman16:13T. Emberson16:03

Pair 3M. Ekholm15:06E. Bouchard17:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Dickinson EDM Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, EDM 3.9	CHI 1, EDM 3
Total goals	6.6	4
Shots on goal	CHI 23.3, EDM 33.3	CHI 18, EDM 38
Win chance	EDM 68%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.6	7	1.70	1	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	2	1.15	1	23%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	1	0.91	0	39%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	3	0.93	1	29%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.3	1	0.75	0	21%	0
EDM M. Savoie	2.2	5	0.61	1	22%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.39	1	11%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.84	0	25%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	3	0.64	0	22%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	0	0.71	0	28%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.9	3	0.52	1	19%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	1.8	4	0.51	1	21%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.7	1	0.40	0	12%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	0	0.55	0	12%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.7	3	0.44	0	16%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.44	0	20%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.6	0	0.32	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	0	0.38	0	14%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.3	3	0.38	1	18%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.3	1	0.43	0	19%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	2	0.31	1	15%	1
EDM J. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.32	1	15%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.28	1	8%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.1	0	0.42	0	15%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.1	3	0.23	0	10%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.1	1	0.50	1	18%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	1	0.21	0	6%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	2	0.19	0	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	1	0.26	0	3%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	1	0.16	0	7%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.19	0	4%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	0	0.24	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.