Game Recap: CHI 1, FLA 5, February 1, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalSat, Feb 1, 2025Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat CHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.16 expected goals to 1.85. FLA outshot CHI 44 to 25. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Verhaeghe had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
FLA	2	1	2	5

1st 0:07CHIL. Slaggert0.11 xG
1st 5:28FLAJ. Gadjovich0.43 xG
1st 10:19FLAS. Reinhart0.24 xG
2nd 16:29FLAM. Tkachuk0.10 xG
3rd 0:10FLAE. Rodrigues0.11 xG
3rd 9:37FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.13 xG

Team Stats

CHIFLA

25Shots on goal44

1.85Expected goals5.16

44Shot attempts88

225v5 shots on goal31

0/3Power play1/6

15Hits31

19Blocked shots6

10Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways6

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.85 xGFLA 5.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 1 scored

FLA44 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:14	5:09
L. Slaggert	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	4	11:02	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:10	5:03
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	19:57	5:03
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:02	4:52
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	2	15:01	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	14:52	0:52
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	2	14:19	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:42	0:51
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	12:52	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	10:46	1:03
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:11	0:43
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	24:34	0:06
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	23:44	4:40
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	23:30	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:45	1:19
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:17	0:19
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	2:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	44	39	5	.886	60:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	2	3	4	1	1	+2	0	17:40	3:43
A. Barkov	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	17:08	3:43
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	9	0	0	+2	0	15:41	3:23
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:11	3:39
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	16:06	3:45
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	4	14:28	3:51
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+1	0	10:34	0:59
J. Gadjovich	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	2	9:54	0:49
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:47	3:33
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	16:32	3:42
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:41	0:56
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	13:08	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	0	21:58	3:37
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+3	2	20:56	1:04
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	19:58	0:51
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:26	0:23
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:53	3:57
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	25	24	1	.960	59:56	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSeth Jones FLA Faces CHI, his team until Feb 20250 SOG
Old teamSpencer Knight CHI Faces FLA, his team until Mar 20250 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.2, FLA 3.5	CHI 1, FLA 5
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	CHI 22.8, FLA 35.5	CHI 25, FLA 44
Win chance	FLA 72%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.4	5	1.25	1	36%	1
FLA S. Bennett	3.1	3	0.70	0	28%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.9	9	0.83	2	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	4	1.00	3	41%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.6	3	1.11	2	31%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	3	0.80	0	25%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.3	1	0.46	0	11%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	0	0.49	0	10%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	3	0.49	1	19%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	4	0.53	1	11%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	2	0.60	1	19%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.9	2	0.43	1	18%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	3	0.58	0	24%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	0	0.32	0	16%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	3	0.57	0	20%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	2	0.27	1	5%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.32	0	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.3	2	0.36	0	15%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	0	0.28	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.39	0	15%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	2	0.29	0	11%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	0	0.36	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.2	0	0.25	1	11%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	2	0.39	0	17%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	4	0.27	1	11%	1
CHI L. Crevier	1.0	0	0.17	0	6%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.9	3	0.15	1	8%	1
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	2	0.21	0	7%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	2	0.20	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.