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Game Recap
CHI3
FinalWed, Nov 4, 2026Every game that night
FLA5

FLA beat CHI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.20 expected goals to 2.00. FLA outshot CHI 30 to 20. S. Vilmanis led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). S. Reinhart had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Markstrom stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0123
FLA2125
  1. 1st 4:43FLAS. Vilmanis0.17 xG
  2. 1st 12:29FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.16 xG
  3. 2nd 13:20FLAS. Jones0.05 xG
  4. 2nd 16:48CHIR. Kantserov0.23 xG
  5. 3rd 9:31CHIF. NazarSH0.11 xG
  6. 3rd 11:01FLAS. Vilmanis0.12 xG
  7. 3rd 16:09CHIF. Nazar0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 18:33FLAS. ReinhartEN0.84 xG

Team Stats

CHIFLA
20Shots on goal30
2.00Expected goals4.20
45Shot attempts60
155v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play1/3
12Hits28
14Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways18
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.00 xGFLA 4.20 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdFLA goal, 4:43FLA goal, 12:29FLA goal, 13:20CHI goal, 16:48CHI goal, 9:31FLA goal, 11:01CHI goal, 16:09FLA goal, 18:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI20 on goal, 3 scored
FLA30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC022420+1222:254:57
F. NazarC202310-1017:034:45
R. KantserovRW101300+1021:444:57
C. SmithRW011011-1014:210:00
A. FrondellC000200-1019:235:02
T. BertuzziLW0000000018:551:09
R. GreeneC0000100013:240:06
J. GreenwayLW0001100013:000:04
R. DonatoC000000-1012:520:59
O. MooreC000201-1012:361:03
T. TeravainenC000000-209:430:45
D. BoucherLW000021008:100:00
E. Del MastroD022020+2012:160:00
S. RinzelD0112010018:330:43
W. KaiserD000113-1022:550:00
A. VlasicD000001-2221:090:13
A. LevshunovD000102-1021:065:17
I. ColeD0001140216:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight29254.86259:19Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. VilmanisLW224210+3013:320:00
S. ReinhartC123601+3018:043:15
C. VerhaegheC112410+2017:163:54
B. TkachukLW011480-1216:573:54
M. TkachukLW0113100015:122:38
L. EllerC000101-1018:240:26
A. LundellC000021-1016:540:26
E. LuostarinenC000012-1216:100:26
S. BennettC000001-1213:490:00
G. HathawayRW0000700011:570:00
B. ImamaLW000121009:400:00
C. SchwindtRW000000008:540:39
S. JonesD1014010021:363:54
G. ForslingD0001040023:200:26
A. EkbladD000201+1023:100:26
U. BalinskisD000120-1018:011:16
D. KulikovD0000200017:020:00
N. MikkolaD000112+2014:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom20173.85060:00Win
A. Schmid000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard16:40R. Kantserov15:59T. Bertuzzi16:24
Line 2R. Greene12:52J. Greenway11:42D. Boucher8:10
Line 3O. Moore10:54R. Donato11:53F. Nazar9:37
Line 4T. Teravainen8:39A. Frondell11:53C. Smith12:20
Pair 1W. Kaiser19:48A. Levshunov15:30
Pair 2I. Cole15:10A. Vlasic18:57
Pair 3E. Mastro11:23S. Rinzel17:04

FLA

Line 1L. Eller14:42A. Lundell13:43E. Luostarinen13:00
Line 2B. Tkachuk13:03S. Bennett13:49M. Tkachuk12:34
Line 3S. Reinhart13:26S. Vilmanis12:51C. Verhaeghe12:41
Line 4G. Hathaway9:25B. Imama9:40C. Schwindt8:15
Pair 1A. Ekblad19:35G. Forsling19:35
Pair 2D. Kulikov17:02U. Balinskis16:45
Pair 3S. Jones14:08N. Mikkola10:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 15 overs hit (67%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+100-1254Over
FLA A. Lundell2.5+140-1650Under
CHI C. Bedard2.5-129+1104Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5-120-1024Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-110-1083Over
FLA S. Bennett2.5+100-1220Under
FLA S. Reinhart2.5-108-1156Over
FLA A. Ekblad1.5-115+1002Over
CHI A. Frondell1.5-185+1402Over
FLA E. Luostarinen1.5+115-1400Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-130+1103Over
FLA G. Forsling1.5+100-1201Under
CHI R. Kantserov1.5-125+1013Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-160+1344Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5+130-1450Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamSeth Jones FLA Faces CHI, his team until Feb 20251 G, 4 SOG
  • Old teamSpencer Knight CHI Faces FLA, his team until Mar 202525 saves on 29

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.6, FLA 3.6CHI 3, FLA 5
Total goals6.28
Shots on goalCHI 22.8, FLA 30.4CHI 20, FLA 30
Win chanceFLA 64%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.540.91134%0
CHI C. Bedard2.740.99231%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.761.00339%1
FLA S. Bennett2.700.75030%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.731.15132%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.640.89233%1
FLA A. Lundell2.300.65023%0
CHI A. Frondell1.920.55020%0
FLA S. Jones1.940.67113%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.700.70027%0
CHI F. Nazar1.730.54222%2
CHI R. Kantserov1.730.64123%1
FLA E. Luostarinen1.500.51017%0
FLA S. Vilmanis1.520.40418%2
FLA L. Eller1.510.42016%0
FLA G. Forsling1.510.3508%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.420.47010%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.310.3006%0
CHI O. Moore1.320.34011%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.220.2517%0
CHI R. Donato1.200.39016%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.210.2607%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.110.2506%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.100.2504%0
CHI R. Greene1.000.32014%0
CHI C. Smith1.000.25112%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.010.2606%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.000.47015%0
CHI J. Greenway0.910.2109%0
FLA C. Schwindt0.800.21010%0
CHI I. Cole0.810.2304%0
CHI E. Mastro0.800.1223%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.700.1709%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1704%0
FLA B. Imama0.610.0705%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.