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Game Recap
CHI1
FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night
NJD4

NJD beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 2.10. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Haula had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Markstrom stopped 16 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0101
NJD0044
  1. 2nd 13:31CHIJ. Dickinson0.14 xG
  2. 3rd 2:45NJDD. Mercer0.21 xG
  3. 3rd 10:28NJDJ. Hughes0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 12:16NJDN. Hischier0.28 xG
  5. 3rd 12:34NJDT. Meier0.55 xG

Team Stats

CHINJD
17Shots on goal24
2.10Expected goals3.39
48Shot attempts63
145v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play0/3
19Hits25
20Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways22
5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.10 xGNJD 3.39 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCHI goal, 13:31NJD goal, 2:45NJD goal, 10:28NJD goal, 12:16NJD goal, 12:34

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI17 on goal, 1 scored
NJD23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. FolignoLW011020-1013:420:06
J. DickinsonC101220-1013:090:12
C. BedardC0002000021:073:50
R. DonatoC0003100017:322:04
T. BertuzziLW000011-1016:493:53
T. TeravainenC000100-1016:323:53
P. KurashevC000000-1015:390:00
T. HallLW000311-1015:022:03
F. NazarC000101-1214:013:52
L. ReichelLW000000-1013:081:51
I. MikheyevRW0000000211:430:04
P. MaroonLW000010-1011:091:53
T. BrodieD011014-1217:490:19
A. VlasicD000212-2024:063:53
C. MurphyD000262-1020:100:00
K. KorchinskiD0001000019:522:07
W. KaiserD000006-1016:410:00
N. AllanD000033-1015:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Commesso24204.83360:00Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BrattLW022110+2018:444:09
D. MercerC112200+2018:011:50
T. MeierRW112210+1017:171:54
N. HischierC101210+1020:524:09
J. HughesC101300+2218:234:09
S. NoesenRW0002200216:583:53
E. HaulaLW0005310014:591:52
O. PalatLW000130+1013:371:51
P. CotterLW0003400013:200:00
N. BastianRW0000510012:060:00
J. DowlingC000002009:390:00
K. MacDermidLW000010005:210:00
B. PesceD022102+4020:400:00
L. HughesD011001+2018:432:15
J. KovacevicD0001110020:220:00
J. SiegenthalerD0000230020:150:00
D. HamiltonD0001010018:183:57
B. DillonD0000130216:250:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom17161.94160:00Win
I. Poulter000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.5, NJD 3.6CHI 1, NJD 4
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalCHI 24.1, NJD 32.6CHI 17, NJD 24
Win chanceNJD 68%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes4.031.33141%1
NJD T. Meier3.320.81235%1
NJD N. Hischier2.921.05135%1
NJD J. Bratt2.811.15233%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.610.70014%0
CHI C. Bedard2.320.76023%0
NJD S. Noesen2.320.73029%0
CHI R. Donato2.130.45020%0
CHI T. Hall1.930.54021%0
NJD E. Haula1.850.46019%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.800.55023%0
NJD D. Mercer1.720.54225%1
CHI T. Teravainen1.610.53021%0
NJD B. Pesce1.510.2726%0
NJD L. Hughes1.500.5217%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.500.34017%0
CHI N. Foligno1.400.41117%0
NJD O. Palat1.410.50019%0
NJD P. Cotter1.430.40018%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.320.3205%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.220.36117%1
CHI L. Reichel1.200.27011%0
CHI P. Kurashev1.100.38014%0
CHI K. Korchinski1.110.1905%0
CHI C. Murphy1.120.2305%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.000.1702%0
NJD J. Kovacevic1.010.2906%0
NJD N. Bastian1.000.26012%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler1.000.2103%0
CHI P. Maroon0.800.2509%0
NJD B. Dillon0.800.2805%0
NJD J. Dowling0.800.20011%0
CHI T. Brodie0.600.2413%0
CHI N. Allan0.500.2003%0
NJD K. MacDermid0.400.0804%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.