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Game Recap
CHI1
NYI4
NYI beat CHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.23 expected goals to 2.50. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 23.
Team Stats
CHINYI
23Shots on goal19
2.50Expected goals2.23
54Shot attempts36
195v5 shots on goal12
0/3Power play1/4
15Hits25
10Blocked shots17
36Penalty minutes16
19Giveaways18
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.50 xGNYI 2.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 20 | 19:15 | 2:52 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:49 |
| R. Kantserov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:14 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 20:46 | 4:03 |
| A. Frondell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:20 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:06 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:00 | 1:46 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:39 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 1:40 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:04 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:19 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 26:35 | 3:41 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 16:42 | 0:21 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:06 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 57:51 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:08 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:45 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:20 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 12:20 | 1:25 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 2:07 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:10 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:14 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 1:43 |
| V. Eklund | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:23 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:55 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 10 | 23:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:45 | 2:24 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:12 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CHI
Line 1T. Bertuzzi14:34R. Kantserov14:48A. Frondell13:37
Line 2J. Greenway13:45C. Smith12:46R. Greene13:10
Line 4D. Toninato8:29R. Donato8:08N. Lardis9:36
Pair 1A. Levshunov17:55B. Byram19:52
NYI
Line 1B. Schenn12:33V. Eklund12:26C. Ritchie12:09
Line 2B. Horvat12:36E. Heineman13:02K. Palmieri10:46
Line 3C. Cizikas12:15M. Maccelli13:08O. Palat10:53
Line 4J. Pageau11:27S. Holmstrom12:01A. Duclair10:49
Pair 1L. Stanley19:16M. Schaefer22:34
Pair 3S. Mayfield10:36T. DeAngelo12:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
5 of 14 overs hit (36%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.5 | +130 | -170 | 4 | Over |
| CHI A. Frondell | 2.5 | +125 | -160 | 3 | Over |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.5 | +106 | -120 | 1 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.5 | -130 | +120 | 4 | Over |
| CHI P. Kane | 2.5 | +136 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| CHI B. Byram | 1.5 | +130 | -155 | 2 | Over |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.5 | -125 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.5 | +110 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.5 | -110 | -115 | 1 | Under |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.5 | -150 | +120 | 1 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 1.5 | -105 | -111 | 2 | Over |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.5 | +105 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.5 | -135 | +110 | 1 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.5 | -115 | +105 | 0 | Under |
4 of 32 overs hit (13%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI A. Duclair | 0.5 | +420 | -650 | 1 | Over |
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +300 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 0.5 | +1600 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| NYI A. Pelech | 0.5 | +1700 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.5 | +1800 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CHI B. Byram | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +155 | -165 | 2 | Over |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +280 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.5 | +750 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +330 | -420 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Smith | 0.5 | +900 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +350 | -600 | 1 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +310 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| CHI I. Cole | 0.5 | +2900 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| CHI J. Greenway | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| NYI J. Pageau | 0.5 | +550 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +230 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +390 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +330 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| CHI N. Lardis | 0.5 | +500 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CHI O. Moore | 0.5 | +525 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NYI O. Palat | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +295 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| CHI R. Donato | 0.5 | +525 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI R. Greene | 0.5 | +850 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI R. Pulock | 0.5 | +1400 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.5 | +1500 | – | 0 | Under |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +270 | -360 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +800 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.5 | +2200 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
3 of 15 overs hit (20%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +195 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| CHI B. Byram | 0.5 | +200 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +155 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +186 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +270 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +300 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +220 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +175 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +190 | -210 | 1 | Over |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| CHI O. Moore | 0.5 | +270 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +125 | -150 | 1 | Over |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +235 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +210 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +180 | -220 | 0 | Under |
6 of 15 overs hit (40%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +105 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| CHI B. Byram | 0.5 | +140 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | -160 | +145 | 2 | Over |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | -110 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +135 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +170 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +125 | -135 | 1 | Over |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | -120 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | -140 | +120 | 1 | Over |
| CHI O. Moore | 0.5 | +165 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | -140 | +115 | 1 | Over |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +140 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +105 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +140 | -150 | 0 | Under |
2 of 13 overs hit (15%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +375 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI B. Byram | 0.5 | +260 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +250 | -290 | 1 | Over |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +275 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +270 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +250 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| CHI N. Lardis | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +230 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CHI R. Donato | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +310 | -550 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Soderblom | 26.5 | -105 | -105 | 15 | Under |
| NYI I. Sorokin | 22.5 | -125 | -105 | 22 | Under |
1 of 2 overs hit (50%).
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.4, NYI 3.4 | CHI 1, NYI 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 23.3, NYI 31.1 | CHI 23, NYI 19 |
| Win chance | NYI 66% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.3 | 4 | 0.93 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.9 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kane | 2.5 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI A. Frondell | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI B. Byram | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI L. Stanley | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI N. Lardis | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI J. Greenway | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI D. Toninato | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.