Game Recap: CHI 4, OTT 3 (OT), April 15, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI4

Final/OTTue, Apr 15, 2025Every game that night

OTT3

CHI beat OTT 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.40 expected goals to 2.82. OTT outshot CHI 37 to 16. C. Bedard led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Kleven had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Knight stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	2	1	0	1	4
OTT	1	2	0	0	3

1st 1:28CHIC. Bedard0.02 xG
1st 6:13CHIJ. Veleno0.12 xG
1st 6:56OTTN. Cousins0.12 xG
2nd 1:19OTTT. ChabotPP0.09 xG
2nd 2:24CHIC. BedardPP0.05 xG
2nd 15:06OTTD. BathersonPP0.14 xG
OT 0:48CHIF. Nazar0.04 xG

Team Stats

CHIOTT

16Shots on goal37

1.40Expected goals2.82

43Shot attempts64

135v5 shots on goal33

1/3Power play2/3

16Hits26

14Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.40 xGOTT 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI16 on goal, 4 scored

OTT36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	2	19:04	3:20
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:21	3:26
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:15	3:30
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	4	15:57	0:58
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	13:10	0:02
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:09	0:55
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:05	3:24
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:09	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	13:37	0:08
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:29	1:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:01	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	23:49	3:23
K. Korchinski	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	15:44	0:52
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	20:38	0:13
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:21	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	18:54	0:52
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:07	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	37	34	3	.919	60:48	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Cozens	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	16:55	1:13
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	5	4	0	-2	0	18:43	1:40
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:52	1:37
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	10:43	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	18:56	1:14
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	17:38	0:32
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:40	0:56
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	15:09	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:32	0:32
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:04	0:29
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	9:56	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	4	2	1	-2	0	25:20	1:45
D. Gilbert	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	14:06	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:56	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	4	3	2	-1	0	22:36	0:47
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	22:12	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	21:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	16	12	4	.750	60:48	OT loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, OTT 3.7	CHI 4, OTT 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	CHI 24.8, OTT 32.1	CHI 16, OTT 37
Win chance	OTT 67%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT D. Batherson	2.7	2	0.91	1	29%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	3	0.71	2	25%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	4	0.73	3	24%	2
CHI R. Donato	2.5	1	0.66	1	26%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.3	2	0.55	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	5	1.04	1	30%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.66	0	26%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	4	0.66	1	13%	1
OTT D. Perron	2.1	0	0.70	0	27%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	2.1	2	0.38	1	5%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.0	1	0.45	0	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.9	3	0.60	0	22%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	1	0.47	1	19%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	0	0.48	1	21%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	4	0.51	0	23%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.62	0	20%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	2	0.31	1	12%	1
OTT A. Crookshank	1.3	3	0.27	0	12%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	1	0.37	1	15%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.22	0	6%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.31	0	17%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	2	0.34	1	12%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.29	0	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	1	0.13	1	4%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	4	0.18	0	5%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	1.0	0	0.15	1	5%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
CHI J. Veleno	1.0	2	0.22	1	10%	1
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.5	0	0.23	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.