Game Recap: CHI 1, PHI 5, March 26, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

PHI5

PHI beat CHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 6.18 expected goals to 1.77. PHI outshot CHI 42 to 26. A. Bump led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Zegras had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Ersson stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	0	1
PHI	2	3	0	5

1st 0:48PHIA. Bump0.26 xG
1st 2:33PHIS. Couturier0.31 xG
2nd 5:14PHID. Barkey0.52 xG
2nd 11:11CHIC. Bedard0.08 xG
2nd 12:41PHIN. Cates0.22 xG
2nd 19:35PHIC. Dvorak0.11 xG

Team Stats

CHIPHI

26Shots on goal42

1.77Expected goals6.18

44Shot attempts71

245v5 shots on goal38

0/3Power play0/4

13Hits22

8Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.77 xGPHI 6.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI26 on goal, 1 scored

PHI41 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:37	2:25
A. Frondell	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	2	17:08	2:26
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:09	1:09
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:06	1:28
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:19	1:50
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	15:36	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:38	0:44
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:39	1:04
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:22	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:06	0:30
S. Boisvert	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	9:03	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	8:06	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	2	16:32	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	2	22:20	2:26
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:54	0:11
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	20:38	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	19:22	1:11
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	42	37	5	.881	60:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	16:43	2:25
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	16:26	2:39
O. Tippett	RW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	0	15:16	2:24
A. Bump	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	10:41	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	+1	2	16:31	2:46
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	16:30	2:44
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:54	0:00
D. Barkey	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:31	2:20
L. Glendening	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	12:52	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:18	2:44
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:09	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	25:19	2:24
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	22:05	2:45
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	0	21:46	2:22
C. York	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+2	0	21:02	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	14:17	0:02
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	26	25	1	.962	59:49	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1R. Greene14:49C. Bedard15:21A. Frondell13:33

Line 2F. Nazar14:07T. Bertuzzi15:29N. Lardis13:36

Line 3I. Mikheyev12:00R. Donato12:22A. Burakovsky10:47

Line 4T. Teravainen8:03S. Boisvert9:03L. Slaggert6:50

Pair 1S. Rinzel16:22W. Kaiser17:49

Pair 2A. Vlasic16:48A. Levshunov17:31

Pair 3L. Crevier13:53E. Mastro16:02

PHI

Line 1C. Grundstrom12:58M. Michkov13:30N. Cates12:23

Line 2S. Couturier13:07G. Hathaway11:39L. Glendening10:44

Line 3O. Tippett11:52T. Zegras13:45D. Barkey12:11

Line 4C. Dvorak11:38T. Konecny11:49A. Bump10:41

Pair 1R. Ristolainen17:36T. Sanheim18:31

Pair 2C. York17:40J. Drysdale18:20

Pair 3N. Seeler12:49E. Andrae13:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, PHI 3.0	CHI 1, PHI 5
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	CHI 22.0, PHI 27.8	CHI 26, PHI 42
Win chance	PHI 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.3	3	0.72	2	31%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	4	0.96	1	30%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	0	1.01	0	33%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	0	0.71	1	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	7	0.81	1	27%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.1	3	0.69	2	22%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	1	0.67	0	22%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.71	0	29%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.8	1	0.37	0	7%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	2	0.46	1	15%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	1.6	2	0.35	0	7%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	3	0.56	2	19%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	3	0.46	0	21%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.5	4	0.45	2	17%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.5	2	0.27	0	15%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	3	0.43	0	16%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	2	0.44	0	12%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.48	0	12%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	1	0.22	1	7%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.3	1	0.46	0	20%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	4	0.36	0	8%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.40	0	5%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.2	1	0.48	0	17%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.1	1	0.57	0	20%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.1	0	0.37	0	16%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.28	0	4%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	3	0.17	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	3	0.33	1	12%	1
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	0	0.21	0	7%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	2	0.21	0	11%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.15	1	8%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.7	2	0.15	0	7%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.6	1	0.13	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	2	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.