CHI beat TBL 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 4.04. TBL outshot CHI 35 to 21. S. Jones led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Point had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Soderblom stopped 34 of 35.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.45 xGTBL 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:41 | 2:19 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:19 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:24 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 12:33 | 1:47 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:27 | 2:19 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 25:30 | 2:19 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:46 | 0:08 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 59:38 | Win |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:19 | 5:19 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 4:14 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:30 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:28 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 2:30 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 2:19 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:15 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:47 | 3:08 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 25:02 | 2:51 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:35 | 3:26 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 56:44 | Loss |
| K. Konin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.4, TBL 3.8 | CHI 4, TBL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.1, TBL 33.1 | CHI 21, TBL 35 |
| Win chance | TBL 72% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 4.1 | 2 | 1.98 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.8 | 7 | 1.21 | 1 | 44% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 2.2 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.