Game Recap: CHI 3, TBL 2, October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI3

FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

TBL2

CHI beat TBL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.93 expected goals to 3.49. R. Donato led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Raddysh had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Knight stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	1	1	3
TBL	0	2	0	2

1st 10:41CHIF. NazarPP0.20 xG
2nd 6:57TBLJ. Guentzel0.11 xG
2nd 10:16CHIR. Donato0.06 xG
2nd 19:18TBLR. McDonagh0.14 xG
3rd 19:06CHIR. Donato0.10 xG

Team Stats

CHITBL

25Shots on goal31

2.93Expected goals3.49

47Shot attempts73

165v5 shots on goal27

1/5Power play0/4

18Hits18

15Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways12

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.93 xGTBL 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

TBL31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	0	21:33	4:52
T. Teravainen	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	20:41	4:51
R. Donato	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	15:05	2:18
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:07	4:50
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	10:58	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:32	4:47
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:21	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	16:17	1:02
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:17	1:29
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	11:22	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:59	1:38
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:19	0:10
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:20	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	17:35	4:50
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	16:35	0:01
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:22	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:29	1:37
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	22:44	4:38
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	20:38	4:03
B. Point	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:05	3:48
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:50	0:39
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	+1	4	16:34	0:08
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:20	0:58
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:50	3:14
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	10:09	1:02
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:00	0:04
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:08	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	23:10	0:14
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	23:05	3:39
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	21:40	0:13
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	19:27	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	14:28	0:57
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	13:03	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	.880	59:13	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Teravainen12:50F. Nazar14:15I. Mikheyev13:49

Line 2T. Bertuzzi11:17C. Bedard16:01L. Reichel10:58

Line 3N. Foligno13:01C. Dach12:48L. Slaggert11:22

Line 4R. Donato11:26R. Greene7:32

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:46S. Rinzel12:45

Pair 2W. Kaiser18:04L. Crevier11:32

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk9:25A. Levshunov8:58

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:12P. Holmberg12:44O. Bjorkstrand10:11

Line 2J. Guentzel12:58B. Point12:15N. Kucherov16:59

Line 3A. Cirelli10:47B. Hagel10:32G. Goncalves8:56

Line 4M. Chaffee8:56D. James9:59C. Douglas7:08

Pair 1R. McDonagh17:08E. Cernak15:59

Pair 2V. Hedman14:59J. Moser16:09

Pair 3D. Raddysh13:06E. Lilleberg12:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIlya Mikheyev TBL Faces CHI, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, TBL 3.7	CHI 3, TBL 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.0, TBL 29.6	CHI 25, TBL 31
Win chance	TBL 67%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL J. Guentzel	3.3	2	1.18	1	42%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	3	1.62	2	38%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	3	1.02	0	33%	0
TBL B. Point	2.7	0	1.14	1	43%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	3	0.77	0	24%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	3	0.92	0	15%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	2.1	1	0.77	0	28%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.1	2	0.48	0	23%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	3	0.53	2	21%	2
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	0	0.66	0	24%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	4	0.59	2	22%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	1.7	2	0.38	0	7%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	1	0.54	1	22%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.6	3	0.55	0	17%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.4	4	0.46	0	8%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.62	2	19%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	1	0.36	0	14%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	1	0.29	0	10%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.34	0	13%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	1	0.51	0	16%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	2	0.43	2	6%	1
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	3	0.31	0	7%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	3	0.24	0	13%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	0	0.23	1	9%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	2	0.18	0	8%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	1	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.7	1	0.11	0	5%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	0.6	1	0.22	0	12%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	0	0.21	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.