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Game Recap
CHI2
FinalTue, Oct 8, 2024Every game that night
UTA5

UTA beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.80 expected goals to 2.67. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Ingram stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0112
UTA2125
  1. 1st 4:56UTAD. Guenther0.05 xG
  2. 1st 13:35UTAC. Keller0.11 xG
  3. 2nd 8:46UTAB. Hayton0.07 xG
  4. 2nd 14:27CHIT. Teravainen0.07 xG
  5. 3rd 4:48CHIN. Foligno0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 19:18UTAD. GuentherEN0.76 xG
  7. 3rd 19:38UTAL. Crouse0.04 xG

Team Stats

CHIUTA
26Shots on goal27
2.67Expected goals3.80
67Shot attempts60
245v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/1
31Hits23
12Blocked shots23
17Penalty minutes11
16Giveaways22
5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.67 xGUTA 3.80 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdUTA goal, 4:56UTA goal, 13:35UTA goal, 8:46CHI goal, 14:27CHI goal, 4:48UTA goal, 19:18UTA goal, 19:38

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI26 on goal, 2 scored
UTA27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC022511+1021:143:26
T. TeravainenC101101+1020:343:22
N. FolignoLW101270-1013:540:00
P. KurashevC000120-2017:552:12
T. HallLW000210-2017:283:30
T. BertuzziLW000210-2017:203:27
I. MikheyevRW000220+1015:500:00
R. DonatoC000061-2013:522:34
P. MaroonLW000120-11013:272:29
C. SmithC000000-1012:132:34
J. DickinsonC000240-2211:430:00
J. AndersonRW000221-1011:070:00
S. JonesD0112000026:423:48
A. VlasicD011103-1019:020:00
A. MartinezD000203-2024:312:12
T. BrodieD000110-2016:450:26
C. MurphyD0000220515:150:00
N. AllanD0000000010:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Mrazek26224.84658:42Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CooleyC022320+1017:350:56
N. SchmaltzC022203+1017:030:45
D. GuentherRW202510+1016:300:51
B. HaytonC112401+1016:160:47
C. KellerRW101301+1417:290:49
L. CrouseLW101110+1013:560:56
A. KerfootC000212+1015:440:15
K. StenlundC000120+1014:590:15
J. McBainC0002410013:480:00
M. MaccelliLW0000000010:571:00
L. O'BrienC000170+1010:300:13
J. DoanRW0000100010:230:56
M. SergachevD0111010023:520:42
S. DurziD0110030522:011:18
I. ColeD011007+2220:520:00
M. KesselringD011132+3017:430:17
J. VälimäkiD000101+1018:150:00
V. KolyachonokD0000110016:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram26242.92360:00Win
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.6, UTA 3.6CHI 2, UTA 5
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalCHI 26.9, UTA 32.0CHI 26, UTA 27
Win chanceUTA 66%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA C. Keller3.431.15138%1
UTA D. Guenther3.250.86231%2
CHI C. Bedard2.850.83225%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.521.03232%0
CHI S. Jones2.420.48111%0
UTA L. Cooley2.330.62224%0
CHI T. Hall2.320.63022%0
UTA B. Hayton2.340.51220%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.320.66025%0
UTA L. Crouse2.110.55125%1
UTA J. Doan2.100.66022%0
UTA S. Durzi2.000.60110%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.910.66123%1
UTA A. Kerfoot1.820.68021%0
CHI N. Foligno1.720.46116%1
UTA M. Maccelli1.700.69018%0
CHI R. Donato1.700.36015%0
CHI P. Kurashev1.610.56017%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.520.39017%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.420.33015%0
CHI C. Smith1.400.28013%0
UTA M. Kesselring1.410.4117%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.410.5317%0
UTA J. Välimäki1.410.4305%0
UTA L. O'Brien1.110.2108%0
CHI C. Murphy1.100.1807%0
UTA J. McBain1.120.43015%0
CHI J. Anderson1.120.28012%0
CHI A. Martinez1.020.2205%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2214%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.16011%0
UTA V. Kolyachonok0.800.2104%0
CHI T. Brodie0.810.3003%0
UTA I. Cole0.700.1813%0
CHI P. Maroon0.710.1907%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.