Game Recap: CHI 1, VAN 4, November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.80 expected goals to 2.59. J. Miller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Silovs stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
VAN	0	1	3	4

1st 6:50CHII. Mikheyev0.28 xG
2nd 4:56VANE. PetterssonPP0.15 xG
3rd 4:25VANE. Brannstrom0.02 xG
3rd 18:04VANJ. MillerEN0.63 xG
3rd 18:56VANT. BluegerEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

CHIVAN

29Shots on goal33

2.59Expected goals3.80

47Shot attempts69

265v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/3

14Hits35

18Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways13

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.59 xGVAN 3.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI29 on goal, 1 scored

VAN32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	15:37	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:09	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	18:20	1:15
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	17:00	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	16:53	0:45
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:48	1:17
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:20	1:17
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:00	1:15
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:30	0:45
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:13	0:43
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	12:45	0:43
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	14:11	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	25:04	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	23:33	1:15
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	2	19:23	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:05	0:45
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	29	2	.935	58:56	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	4	4	1	0	0	17:15	3:42
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	20:39	3:37
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:13	3:37
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	2	5	0	+1	0	15:35	0:45
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:57	0:43
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:46	0:42
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:27	0:00
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:03	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:33	3:39
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	25:37	3:36
E. Brannstrom	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:42	0:47
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	22:54	0:42
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	19:40	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:19	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownConnor Bedard CHI Plays near home (born in North Vancouver)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, VAN 3.5	CHI 1, VAN 4
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.2, VAN 29.6	CHI 29, VAN 33
Win chance	VAN 68%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN C. Garland	2.9	1	0.85	1	29%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	1	0.74	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.4	3	1.02	1	35%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	2	1.02	1	11%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.4	4	1.15	2	34%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	1	0.65	1	28%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	4	0.46	0	18%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.9	1	0.47	1	22%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	2	0.49	1	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	0	0.52	0	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	2	0.56	0	20%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	3	0.43	1	16%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.35	1	16%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.51	0	7%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.5	2	0.50	1	21%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	1	0.41	0	20%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.4	3	0.30	0	14%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.3	0	0.56	0	24%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	2	0.43	1	12%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	0	0.45	0	14%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	3	0.32	0	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	3	0.29	0	3%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.23	0	7%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	1	0.22	0	7%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.0	3	0.28	0	11%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	2	0.24	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	3	0.26	1	3%	1
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	0	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	2	0.18	0	3%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	2	0.12	0	2%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.19	1	4%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.