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Game Recap
COL4
ANA2
COL beat ANA 4-2, with the chances close: 2.67 expected goals to 1.93. C. Coyle led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Colangelo had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Wedgewood stopped 19 of 21.
Team Stats
COLANA
25Shots on goal21
2.67Expected goals1.93
59Shot attempts51
175v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/2
12Hits12
18Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways18
1Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.67 xGANA 1.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:52 | 4:13 |
| J. Drury | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 4:14 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:48 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:19 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 4:12 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:24 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:23 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Tynan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:51 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:15 | 4:20 |
| E. Johnson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| W. Aamodt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:16 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Ahcan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 59:51 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:35 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:30 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:16 | 1:30 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:27 | 2:29 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:17 | 2:25 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:29 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:15 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 2:32 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:31 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:45 | 2:14 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:30 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.6, ANA 2.9 | COL 4, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | COL 32.4, ANA 26.7 | COL 25, ANA 21 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 0 | 0.87 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.9 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.5 | 3 | 0.49 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 1.0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Ahcan | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL T. Tynan | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.5 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.