Game Recap: COL 4, CBJ 1, October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

CBJ1

COL beat CBJ 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.11 expected goals to 2.03. COL outshot CBJ 36 to 23. V. Nichushkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Colton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	3	1	4
CBJ	0	1	0	1

2nd 1:36CBJI. Provorov0.07 xG
2nd 10:34COLC. Makar0.04 xG
2nd 11:46COLB. Nelson0.05 xG
2nd 19:56COLV. Nichushkin0.11 xG
3rd 18:07COLV. NichushkinEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

COLCBJ

36Shots on goal23

5.11Expected goals2.03

75Shot attempts55

345v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play0/2

13Hits12

14Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways21

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 5.11 xGCBJ 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL36 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+2	0	17:21	0:46
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	19:51	1:14
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	18:03	1:14
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	0	16:46	1:14
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:07	0:46
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	12:57	0:46
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	18:24	1:14
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	12:09	0:46
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:09	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:29	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	23:19	1:14
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	20:54	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	19:29	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	16:39	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	23:49	0:46
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:30	2:06
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	19:45	1:57
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:04	2:02
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	17:12	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	17:08	1:58
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:02	1:57
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	16:13	1:57
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	15:47	2:03
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	11:40	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:00	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	8:48	0:00
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-2	0	24:56	2:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	26:25	2:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	21:12	2:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	21:00	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:53	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	35	32	3	.914	58:30	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:56M. Necas17:24A. Lehkonen14:35

Line 2G. Landeskog14:32V. Nichushkin15:10B. Nelson14:10

Line 3J. Drury12:43R. Colton11:23V. Olofsson12:11

Line 4G. Brindley10:20P. Kelly9:51J. Kiviranta9:20

Pair 1D. Toews19:41C. Makar18:41

Pair 2B. Burns19:40J. Manson17:24

Pair 3S. Malinski15:48I. Solovyov13:41

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner16:08M. Olivier16:43C. Coyle12:39

Line 2S. Monahan14:23K. Marchenko15:22K. Johnson14:42

Line 3C. Sillinger11:55A. Fantilli14:37D. Voronkov12:42

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese8:20E. Chinakhov9:00I. Lundestrom10:53

Pair 1Z. Werenski22:19D. Fabbro19:46

Pair 2D. Severson18:44I. Provorov20:48

Pair 3D. Mateychuk15:51J. Christiansen7:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20252 SOG
Old teamValeri Nichushkin CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20262 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, CBJ 3.0	COL 4, CBJ 1
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	COL 32.6, CBJ 27.5	COL 36, CBJ 23
Win chance	COL 61%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	2	1.51	0	42%	0
COL C. Makar	3.2	3	1.07	2	26%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	3	0.75	0	15%	0
COL M. Necas	2.8	0	0.97	1	29%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	0	0.74	1	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.80	1	33%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	2	0.82	1	33%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	4	0.69	2	31%	2
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	1	0.57	0	26%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.2	0	0.77	1	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	2	0.58	0	25%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	2	0.72	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	2.1	3	0.41	1	10%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	0	0.49	0	22%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.9	5	0.47	1	22%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.57	0	12%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.7	0	0.37	0	16%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	5	0.39	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	3	0.61	0	21%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	3	0.23	1	7%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.30	1	8%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	3	0.35	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	1	0.30	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	2	0.31	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.2	2	0.41	0	16%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	1	0.36	1	7%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.23	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
COL I. Solovyov	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.0	1	0.32	0	7%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.20	0	11%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.8	2	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.8	1	0.24	0	5%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	0	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.