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Game Recap
COL2
FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
CBJ7

CBJ beat COL 7-2, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 3.37. C. Coyle led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). D. Toews had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Talbot stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL1102
CBJ2417
  1. 1st 0:28CBJM. Olivier0.45 xG
  2. 1st 7:37CBJI. ProvorovPP0.06 xG
  3. 1st 10:57COLC. Makar0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 4:19CBJJ. Christiansen0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 7:20CBJC. Sillinger0.27 xG
  6. 2nd 12:03CBJC. CoylePP0.24 xG
  7. 2nd 12:42CBJV. Nichushkin0.15 xG
  8. 2nd 16:35COLN. KadriPP0.54 xG
  9. 3rd 11:21CBJC. Coyle0.19 xG

Team Stats

COLCBJ
29Shots on goal24
3.37Expected goals3.84
64Shot attempts50
255v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play2/4
11Hits15
12Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways14
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.37 xGCBJ 3.84 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCBJ goal, 0:28CBJ goal, 7:37COL goal, 10:57CBJ goal, 4:19CBJ goal, 7:20CBJ goal, 12:03CBJ goal, 12:42COL goal, 16:35CBJ goal, 11:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL29 on goal, 2 scored
CBJ24 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. MacKinnonC022100-3019:283:33
N. KadriC1011000014:493:05
M. NecasC000230-3218:513:25
A. LehkonenLW000410-3018:491:28
B. NelsonC0000100015:550:53
T. HughesRW0002100015:213:39
G. LandeskogLW0000010013:361:04
J. SchwartzLW0003100013:230:49
N. RoyC0001000213:080:00
P. KellyC000100-1012:470:00
L. O'ConnorRW000101-1211:520:00
F. SvechkovC000110-109:130:00
C. MakarD112502-3022:322:55
S. MalinskiD0111110019:090:11
D. ToewsD000602-3021:321:42
B. KulakD0000110019:060:00
B. BurnsD000002-1018:110:06
N. JuulsenD000012-1015:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood954.55627:20Loss
M. Blackwood15123.80032:19

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CoyleC224302+4220:185:08
M. OlivierRW123222+4017:410:45
C. SillingerC112211+3217:430:45
V. NichushkinRW112121+2016:432:19
K. JohnsonC0111000018:544:22
C. GarlandRW0111100015:492:19
S. MonahanC011100+1014:502:19
A. FantilliC0004110020:514:23
M. KniesLW0000300217:464:23
L. Del Bel BelluzC000001-107:010:00
R. LombergLW000020-106:450:00
D. HeinenLW000001005:050:00
Z. WerenskiD022211+3024:325:08
D. MateychukD011102+1020:292:19
I. ProvorovD101401+1019:592:19
D. SeversonD011001+3018:580:46
J. ChristiansenD1011100015:310:00
D. FabbroD0001110016:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Talbot29272.93160:00Win
J. Greaves000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:34M. Necas15:05A. Lehkonen14:51
Line 2B. Nelson11:42J. Schwartz12:34T. Hughes11:42
Line 3N. Kadri11:42G. Landeskog12:30N. Roy11:13
Line 4L. O'Connor8:56F. Svechkov8:47P. Kelly8:16
Pair 1D. Toews17:33C. Makar17:52
Pair 2B. Kulak15:27N. Juulsen13:31
Pair 3B. Burns14:49S. Malinski15:56

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli16:23K. Johnson14:30M. Knies13:23
Line 2C. Coyle13:59M. Olivier14:51C. Sillinger14:30
Line 3V. Nichushkin13:18C. Garland13:28S. Monahan10:25
Line 4D. Heinen4:16R. Lomberg6:43L. Belluz6:59
Pair 1D. Severson17:02Z. Werenski17:55
Pair 2I. Provorov15:13D. Mateychuk16:02
Pair 3D. Fabbro14:54J. Christiansen14:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 26 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5+100-1181Under
CBJ A. Fantilli2.5-115+1104Over
COL C. Makar2.5+100-1205Over
COL M. Necas2.5+130-1592Under
COL N. Kadri2.5+130-1481Under
CBJ Z. Werenski2.5-140+1272Under
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-115-1104Over
COL B. Burns1.5-105–0Under
COL B. Nelson1.5-120+1000Under
CBJ C. Coyle1.5-130+1153Over
CBJ C. Garland1.5+125-1401Under
CBJ C. Sillinger1.5+100-1252Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.5+103-1251Under
CBJ D. Severson1.5+140–0Under
COL D. Toews1.5+130-1406Over
COL G. Landeskog1.5+110-1280Under
CBJ I. Provorov1.5+122-1504Over
COL J. Schwartz1.5+115-1403Over
CBJ K. Johnson1.5-165+1541Under
CBJ M. Knies1.5-110-1100Under
CBJ M. Olivier1.5+102-1102Over
COL S. Malinski1.5+107-1301Under
CBJ S. Monahan1.5+115–1Under
COL T. Hughes1.5-114-1102Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.5-110+1051Under
COL P. Kelly0.5-225–1Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20252 G, 2 A, 3 SOG
  • Old teamValeri Nichushkin CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20261 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.4, CBJ 2.9COL 2, CBJ 7
Total goals6.39
Shots on goalCOL 29.1, CBJ 27.4COL 29, CBJ 24
Win chanceCOL 57%CBJ won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.511.28239%0
CBJ Z. Werenski3.020.95218%0
CBJ A. Fantilli3.040.79031%0
COL C. Makar2.650.95226%1
COL N. Kadri2.510.71126%1
COL T. Hughes2.120.61024%0
COL M. Necas2.120.91027%0
CBJ K. Johnson2.010.63123%0
COL A. Lehkonen1.940.67029%0
CBJ M. Knies1.800.71026%0
COL S. Malinski1.810.3719%0
CBJ C. Coyle1.730.61421%2
COL B. Burns1.700.3208%0
COL G. Landeskog1.700.58024%0
COL B. Nelson1.700.54024%0
CBJ C. Sillinger1.720.39214%1
COL J. Schwartz1.630.49020%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.620.37318%1
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.510.46220%1
COL D. Toews1.560.49011%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.540.3317%1
CBJ C. Garland1.510.34115%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.310.3619%0
CBJ S. Monahan1.210.38115%0
COL P. Kelly1.210.32013%0
CBJ D. Severson1.100.4118%0
COL L. O'Connor1.110.26011%0
COL N. Roy1.110.35013%0
CBJ L. Belluz1.000.2308%0
CBJ R. Lomberg1.000.1407%0
COL B. Kulak0.900.1904%0
COL F. Svechkov0.810.28010%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.710.1312%1
COL N. Juulsen0.600.1503%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.