Game Recap: COL 3, CGY 1, April 14, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night

CGY1

COL beat CGY 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.77 expected goals to 2.82. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. O'Connor had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. M. Blackwood stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	2	3
CGY	0	1	0	1

2nd 7:22CGYB. Coleman0.07 xG
2nd 11:25COLA. Lehkonen0.10 xG
3rd 15:07COLG. Landeskog0.08 xG
3rd 19:43COLN. MacKinnonEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

COLCGY

38Shots on goal31

4.77Expected goals2.82

64Shot attempts51

315v5 shots on goal25

0/4Power play0/2

9Hits13

8Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways17

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.77 xGCGY 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL38 on goal, 3 scored

CGY31 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	0	22:36	5:02
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	22:17	3:32
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	21:08	5:02
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+2	0	16:57	5:02
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:18	3:12
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:55	1:42
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:34	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	12:19	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:48	1:42
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:13	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:44	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:31	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	3	3	4	0	0	+2	0	25:35	5:10
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	21:12	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	20:36	1:42
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:29	1:34
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:28	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	12:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	31	30	1	.968	59:35	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	-1	0	16:45	1:06
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:36	0:01
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:44	1:01
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:03	1:59
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:52	2:01
R. Kerins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:51	1:56
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:22	1:54
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:48	1:51
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:41	0:04
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	12:18	1:56
T. Gross	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:59	0:00
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	10:54	2:01
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	24:26	0:10
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:34	1:30
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	22:21	2:30
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:37	0:00
A. Wiebe	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:12	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	14:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	37	35	2	.946	59:25	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas16:38N. MacKinnon15:22A. Lehkonen16:32

Line 2V. Nichushkin12:27N. Roy12:54G. Landeskog11:31

Line 3J. Drury10:52L. O'Connor11:35R. Colton9:58

Line 4P. Kelly10:29J. Kiviranta8:08Z. Bardakov8:29

Pair 1N. Blankenburg14:17J. Ahcan12:34

Pair 2B. Kulak18:19C. Makar18:35

Pair 3B. Burns16:33S. Malinski16:27

CGY

Line 1C. Zary13:14R. Kerins13:25A. Klapka12:37

Line 2M. Gridin13:41V. Olofsson12:50M. Frost13:08

Line 3M. Backlund13:12B. Coleman12:16J. Farabee13:49

Line 4Y. Sharangovich9:17A. Suniev8:07T. Gross9:24

Pair 1O. Määttä20:24H. Brzustewicz19:15

Pair 2Z. Parekh19:19Z. Whitecloud8:43

Pair 3B. Pachal13:50A. Wiebe15:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCale Makar COL Plays in his hometown3 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.6, CGY 2.7	COL 3, CGY 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	COL 33.3, CGY 26.5	COL 38, CGY 31
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	4	1.50	1	42%	1
COL M. Necas	2.9	5	1.15	1	33%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.7	4	0.58	1	25%	1
COL C. Makar	2.4	4	0.87	3	19%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	5	0.77	1	28%	1
COL S. Malinski	2.2	2	0.42	1	8%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	2	0.46	1	18%	0
CGY M. Gridin	2.1	2	0.55	0	18%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	1	0.57	0	25%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	0	0.35	0	8%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	3	0.56	1	24%	1
CGY V. Olofsson	1.8	3	0.43	0	20%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.48	0	19%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	0	0.30	0	14%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	3	0.41	0	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	3	0.38	0	20%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	2	0.34	0	16%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.20	1	4%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.3	2	0.29	0	8%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CGY A. Suniev	1.2	4	0.30	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	2	0.27	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	0	0.35	0	13%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	2	0.22	0	10%	0
CGY T. Gross	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
CGY O. Määttä	0.9	1	0.32	0	5%	0
CGY R. Kerins	0.9	0	0.40	0	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	4	0.24	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.8	3	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.6	2	0.11	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	1	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.