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Game Recap
COL5
CHI2
COL beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.12 expected goals to 1.97. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Blackwood stopped 21 of 23.
Team Stats
COLCHI
29Shots on goal23
3.12Expected goals1.97
57Shot attempts55
195v5 shots on goal14
1/5Power play0/4
12Hits16
15Blocked shots11
10Penalty minutes12
24Giveaways12
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.12 xGCHI 1.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hughes | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 6:14 |
| N. Kadri | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 | 6:16 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 3:31 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 6:17 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 2:10 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 2:03 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 17:00 | 3:07 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:28 | 3:56 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:03 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:12 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 6:13 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:03 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:19 | 6:34 |
| R. Kantserov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 5:43 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 2:10 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:42 | 4:43 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:17 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 5:40 |
| A. Frondell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:33 | 5:42 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:53 | 2:17 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 2:22 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:11 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:32 | 2:06 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:54 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon12:27M. Necas11:51A. Lehkonen12:41
Line 2J. Schwartz11:55T. Hughes10:53B. Nelson11:24
Line 3N. Kadri9:24G. Landeskog11:42N. Roy9:44
Line 4L. O'Connor8:51P. Kelly8:33F. Svechkov8:21
Pair 1B. Kulak14:17N. Juulsen15:01
Pair 3B. Burns13:44S. Malinski15:03
CHI
Line 1C. Bedard13:38R. Kantserov9:57R. Donato10:26
Line 3T. Bertuzzi11:33A. Mangiapane10:18A. Frondell7:52
Line 4T. Teravainen8:32C. Smith8:21R. Greene12:04
Pair 1A. Levshunov17:50W. Kaiser15:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
8 of 16 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.5 | -138 | +115 | 2 | Under |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | -155 | +124 | 4 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | -108 | +100 | 2 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | +115 | -145 | 1 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.5 | +114 | -130 | 4 | Over |
| CHI A. Frondell | 1.5 | -155 | +135 | 2 | Over |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.5 | -170 | +135 | 2 | Over |
| COL B. Nelson | 1.5 | -140 | +130 | 1 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | -115 | -110 | 2 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.5 | +100 | -111 | 3 | Over |
| COL G. Landeskog | 1.5 | -120 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 1.5 | -105 | -115 | 4 | Over |
| COL N. Roy | 1.5 | +170 | -240 | 1 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 1.5 | -135 | +125 | 0 | Under |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | -120 | -103 | 2 | Over |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.5 | +105 | -125 | 1 | Under |
4 of 33 overs hit (12%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +350 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +165 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 0.5 | +1100 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Mangiapane | 0.5 | +700 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.5 | +1300 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Burns | 0.5 | +1300 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Kulak | 0.5 | +1700 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +235 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Bedard | 0.5 | +195 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | +300 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Smith | 0.5 | +1400 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +700 | -1200 | 1 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +440 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| COL F. Svechkov | 0.5 | +850 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +310 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| CHI I. Cole | 0.5 | +2000 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +400 | -750 | 2 | Over |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.5 | +700 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | +185 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Juulsen | 0.5 | +1700 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +245 | -370 | 2 | Over |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | +110 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Roy | 0.5 | +550 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI O. Moore | 0.5 | +700 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +380 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| COL P. Kelly | 0.5 | +600 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI R. Donato | 0.5 | +420 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CHI R. Greene | 0.5 | +700 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| COL S. Malinski | 0.5 | +1100 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 0.5 | +1100 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +340 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.5 | +2300 | -2500 | 1 | Over |
7 of 18 overs hit (39%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +230 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +195 | -245 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 0.5 | +300 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Burns | 0.5 | +260 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +230 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Bedard | 0.5 | +105 | -115 | 1 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | -130 | +125 | 1 | Over |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +145 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +265 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +240 | -310 | 1 | Over |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +245 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | -115 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +160 | -185 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | -165 | +139 | 1 | Over |
| COL N. Roy | 0.5 | +320 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +135 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| COL S. Malinski | 0.5 | +230 | -280 | 1 | Over |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +225 | -295 | 0 | Under |
8 of 17 overs hit (47%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 1.5 | +115 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +125 | -132 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | -145 | +115 | 0 | Under |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 0.5 | +250 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Burns | 0.5 | +200 | -280 | 1 | Over |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +100 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Bedard | 0.5 | -185 | +160 | 1 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | -200 | +160 | 1 | Over |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +110 | -132 | 2 | Over |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +150 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +120 | -140 | 1 | Over |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +140 | -150 | 2 | Over |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | -220 | +183 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | -125 | +110 | 2 | Over |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | -128 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| COL S. Malinski | 0.5 | +190 | -230 | 1 | Over |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +120 | -130 | 0 | Under |
3 of 14 overs hit (21%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI A. Frondell | 0.5 | +450 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI C. Bedard | 0.5 | +185 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | +145 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.5 | +400 | -625 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | +185 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +260 | -300 | 1 | Over |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | +150 | -165 | 1 | Over |
| CHI P. Kane | 0.5 | +200 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 0.5 | +310 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI S. Knight | 28.5 | -110 | -110 | 24 | Under |
| COL M. Blackwood | 21.5 | -105 | -125 | 21 | Under |
1 of 1 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL C. Makar | 1.5 | +130 | -180 | 3 | Over |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.8, CHI 2.6 | COL 5, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | COL 32.7, CHI 24.3 | COL 29, CHI 23 |
| Win chance | COL 68% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 2 | 1.41 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.0 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.8 | 4 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.6 | 2 | 1.05 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | 1 | 1.05 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL T. Hughes | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI A. Frondell | 2.2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kane | 2.1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 1.9 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI R. Kantserov | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL J. Schwartz | 1.7 | 4 | 0.51 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CHI I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.