Game Recap: COL 3, DAL 5, November 29, 2024

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalFri, Nov 29, 2024Every game that night

DAL5

DAL beat COL 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.83 expected goals to 4.85. COL outshot DAL 32 to 24. M. Marchment led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Marchment had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Oettinger stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	2	3
DAL	2	2	1	5

1st 5:36DALT. SeguinPP0.32 xG
1st 13:56COLV. NichushkinPP0.18 xG
1st 14:28DALM. Marchment0.27 xG
2nd 7:07DALJ. Benn0.19 xG
2nd 18:42DALR. HintzPP0.24 xG
3rd 1:02COLA. Lehkonen0.08 xG
3rd 8:03COLM. Rantanen0.10 xG
3rd 17:17DALM. MarchmentEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

32Shots on goal24

4.85Expected goals2.83

60Shot attempts54

215v5 shots on goal11

1/5Power play2/4

20Hits20

19Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes10

8Giveaways11

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.85 xGDAL 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL31 on goal, 3 scored

DAL24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	4	1	1	-1	0	25:53	6:18
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	-1	0	26:02	6:26
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	22:42	6:09
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	21:03	0:55
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	21:55	6:08
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:15	0:46
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:42	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:34	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	9:41	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:40	0:50
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5:31	0:00
C. Bradley	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4:07	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	30:00	6:05
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	20:43	0:43
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	25:20	1:17
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	15:43	0:13
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	12:34	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	23	19	4	.826	57:12	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	2	1	3	5	4	1	+2	0	14:00	1:54
T. Seguin	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	16:56	1:56
J. Benn	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	4	16:17	2:46
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	2	20:22	2:48
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:52	2:30
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	17:15	2:11
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	16:23	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:12	2:46
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:42	1:53
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:06	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	2	9:17	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:17	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	2	1	3	+1	0	24:32	3:06
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	27:15	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	23:16	1:35
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	16:21	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:37	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	8:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.0, DAL 3.3	COL 3, DAL 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	COL 28.1, DAL 29.7	COL 32, DAL 24
Win chance	DAL 56%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	5	1.36	1	37%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	3	0.92	2	21%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.75	1	30%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.5	4	1.04	2	35%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.4	1	0.76	2	27%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	2	0.94	0	32%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	2	0.76	1	30%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	3	0.72	1	28%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.72	2	12%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.81	1	32%	1
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	5	0.70	3	24%	2
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	3	0.83	1	29%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	3	0.70	2	22%	1
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.6	0	0.66	0	19%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.48	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	0	0.49	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.29	0	8%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	0	0.48	0	18%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	1	0.29	0	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	3	0.24	0	6%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.1	1	0.30	0	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.38	1	12%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	2	0.33	1	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	3	0.19	0	8%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	2	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.9	0	0.30	0	11%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.8	0	0.24	0	10%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.8	0	0.10	0	6%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.6	0	0.09	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.21	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.