Game Recap: COL 5, DAL 1, April 19, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL5

FinalSat, Apr 19, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

DAL1

COL beat DAL 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.62 expected goals to 2.52. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	2	3	5
DAL	0	0	1	1

2nd 9:30COLA. Lehkonen0.12 xG
2nd 16:38COLN. MacKinnonPP0.09 xG
3rd 6:45DALR. HintzPP0.07 xG
3rd 12:56COLD. Toews0.07 xG
3rd 16:52COLN. MacKinnonEN0.58 xG
3rd 17:03COLC. Coyle0.32 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

25Shots on goal24

3.62Expected goals2.52

69Shot attempts52

185v5 shots on goal13

1/4Power play1/3

30Hits18

15Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways12

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.62 xGDAL 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 5 scored

DAL24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	7	1	1	+2	0	20:10	4:11
L. O'Connor	RW	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	13:52	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	20:26	4:20
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:01	1:36
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	17:48	4:18
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:14	1:47
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:38	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	10:52	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:12	4:15
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	15:36	1:35
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	10:58	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:04	1:34
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	24:19	1:37
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	23:24	4:14
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	2	18:25	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	4	16:50	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+2	0	17:15	0:03
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	2	19:00	4:19
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	4	16:56	4:02
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:18	4:26
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	18:03	4:43
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:06	1:39
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	15:56	1:49
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	2	15:41	1:12
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:17	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:39	1:29
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:04	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	10:37	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:18	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	0	0	6	-1	0	27:34	5:09
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	22:00	0:47
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:37	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:56	0:05
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:04	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	24	20	4	.833	59:45	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20253 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, DAL 3.0	COL 5, DAL 1
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	COL 31.8, DAL 25.5	COL 25, DAL 24
Win chance	COL 56%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	7	1.37	3	36%	2
COL C. Makar	3.3	1	0.95	1	22%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.8	1	0.81	0	33%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	0	0.82	1	25%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	3	0.97	0	34%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	3	0.68	0	25%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	2	0.77	1	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	1	0.71	0	29%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.61	1	26%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	3	0.81	1	30%	1
COL D. Toews	1.9	3	0.51	1	10%	1
DAL T. Harley	1.9	0	0.53	1	12%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.59	0	23%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	2	0.81	0	27%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.8	1	0.66	0	21%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	1	0.39	0	16%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	0	0.64	0	16%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	0	0.32	1	11%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.5	1	0.49	1	18%	1
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.25	1	6%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.44	0	17%	0
COL E. Johnson	1.4	1	0.14	0	5%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	3	0.27	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.24	1	10%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.3	0	0.61	1	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	3	0.37	0	15%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.29	2	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.28	0	9%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	0	0.22	1	4%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	1	0.08	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	0	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.