Game Recap: COL 3, DAL 4 (OT), April 21, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

Final/OTMon, Apr 21, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

DAL4

DAL beat COL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 2.54. L. O'Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Blackwell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Oettinger stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	1	2	0	0	3
DAL	1	1	1	1	4

1st 8:48COLN. MacKinnonPP0.08 xG
1st 19:06DALT. SeguinPP0.13 xG
2nd 3:40DALT. Harley0.08 xG
2nd 4:42COLJ. Drury0.12 xG
2nd 19:27COLL. O'Connor0.13 xG
3rd 10:13DALE. Dadonov0.42 xG
OT 17:46DALC. Blackwell0.19 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

37Shots on goal39

2.54Expected goals4.68

74Shot attempts80

315v5 shots on goal33

1/3Power play1/4

45Hits45

18Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways15

11Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.54 xGDAL 4.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL36 on goal, 3 scored

DAL39 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. O'Connor	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	2	17:44	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	0	24:53	4:23
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	22:43	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	22:07	4:06
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:22	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	4	2	2	0	0	25:30	4:29
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	24:28	4:16
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	19:11	0:13
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	-3	0	16:19	0:13
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	2	14:59	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	2	13:31	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-3	0	12:42	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	6	2	1	0	0	30:53	4:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	25:47	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	0	21:03	0:06
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	+1	0	33:52	0:39
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	2	23:56	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	39	35	4	.897	77:25	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Steel	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+1	0	17:45	0:13
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	5	3	0	+1	0	25:10	4:41
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	20:00	2:04
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:48	2:37
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	4	4	0	+1	0	17:42	2:26
E. Dadonov	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	15:48	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:09	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	1	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	12:37	0:07
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	2	26:16	5:22
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	23:33	3:27
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	21:55	3:47
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	20:54	4:30
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	35:54	5:36
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	-2	0	26:49	0:31
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-2	0	31:18	1:54
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+2	0	24:45	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:11	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	14:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	37	34	3	.919	77:41	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20253 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, DAL 3.0	COL 3, DAL 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	COL 31.4, DAL 25.3	COL 37, DAL 39
Win chance	COL 56%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.36	1	36%	1
COL C. Makar	3.2	6	0.94	1	22%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.8	4	0.81	0	33%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	0.84	0	25%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	3	0.94	0	33%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.4	2	0.67	1	25%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	5	0.77	1	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	1	0.69	0	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	4	0.62	1	26%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	4	0.80	0	30%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	0	0.52	0	10%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.9	1	0.58	1	23%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	1	0.54	1	12%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	3	0.82	0	28%	0
COL M. Wood	1.8	1	0.27	0	12%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	4	0.62	1	21%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	1	0.62	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	2	0.26	0	6%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.47	0	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.32	1	11%	1
COL S. Girard	1.4	0	0.27	1	4%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	2	0.42	1	17%	1
COL E. Johnson	1.3	3	0.14	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.24	0	10%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.63	1	15%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	1	0.31	2	12%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	5	0.25	1	11%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.28	2	10%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	2	0.23	1	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	0	0.23	1	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	1	0.07	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	4	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.21	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.