Game Recap: COL 2, DAL 6, April 28, 2025

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalMon, Apr 28, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

DAL6

DAL beat COL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 3.17. W. Johnston led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Rantanen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	2	0	2
DAL	2	3	1	6

1st 0:09DALW. Johnston0.03 xG
1st 19:15DALT. Harley0.09 xG
2nd 1:12DALM. Rantanen0.29 xG
2nd 12:11COLA. Lehkonen0.08 xG
2nd 14:38COLN. MacKinnon0.08 xG
2nd 16:48DALW. JohnstonPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:32DALM. Marchment0.10 xG
3rd 17:55DALR. HintzEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

28Shots on goal27

3.17Expected goals5.04

69Shot attempts61

205v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play1/4

51Hits29

17Blocked shots21

34Penalty minutes32

12Giveaways15

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.17 xGDAL 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 2 scored

DAL25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	7	1	1	0	0	20:56	5:56
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	1	5	0	+1	0	18:40	5:24
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	2	18:20	3:38
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:17	5:24
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-3	0	16:31	2:22
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	14:25	0:36
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	14:07	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	9	1	-2	2	14:03	0:36
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:18	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	12	13:03	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	14	11:05	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:25	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	-2	0	21:01	0:40
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	0	25:50	5:22
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	17:40	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:14	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:06	0:02
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	14:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	18	13	5	.722	40:00	Loss
S. Wedgewood	8	8	0	1.000	18:30

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	2	1	3	2	1	1	+2	0	21:24	4:41
M. Rantanen	RW	1	2	3	6	1	1	+2	0	17:18	4:33
R. Hintz	C	1	1	2	5	2	1	+2	2	18:24	4:39
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:37	4:40
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	14:58	2:10
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+2	2	13:47	0:00
T. Seguin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:42	2:05
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	3	5	3	+2	0	15:29	1:50
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	14:56	2:10
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12	12:54	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:29	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+2	0	26:00	5:44
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	23:22	0:19
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:26	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	12:28	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	23:37	1:09
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	14	11:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 G, 2 A, 6 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20248 saves on 8

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, DAL 3.0	COL 2, DAL 6
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	COL 32.5, DAL 25.8	COL 28, DAL 27
Win chance	COL 57%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	7	1.37	2	37%	1
COL C. Makar	3.4	4	0.95	0	22%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.8	1	0.78	0	32%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	1	0.83	2	25%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	1	0.89	0	31%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	6	0.95	3	33%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	2	0.79	3	32%	2
DAL T. Seguin	2.2	1	0.63	1	24%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	2	0.66	0	27%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	5	0.82	2	31%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.60	1	26%	1
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.60	1	23%	1
DAL T. Harley	2.0	2	0.58	1	13%	1
COL D. Toews	2.0	1	0.53	1	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	1	0.25	0	7%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	1	0.80	1	28%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.8	3	0.64	0	21%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.7	0	0.66	0	17%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	2	0.28	0	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	0	0.31	0	11%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	3	0.43	1	17%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	0	0.28	0	5%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.3	1	0.43	0	16%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.62	0	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.25	1	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	0	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	0	0.07	1	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.8	0	0.17	1	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.