Game Recap: COL 5, DAL 4 (SO), March 6, 2026

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Game Recap

COL5

Final/SOFri, Mar 6, 2026Every game that night

DAL4

COL beat DAL 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.21 expected goals to 4.06. COL outshot DAL 29 to 21. M. Necas led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). D. Toews had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Wedgewood stopped 10 of 10.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
COL	2	1	1	1	5
DAL	3	1	0	0	4

1st 3:33COLC. MakarPP0.10 xG
1st 7:11DALM. HeiskanenPP0.03 xG
1st 10:39DALW. Johnston0.15 xG
1st 16:07DALJ. Hryckowian0.36 xG
1st 19:58COLN. MacKinnonPP0.13 xG
2nd 1:52DALJ. Benn0.18 xG
2nd 8:06COLM. Necas0.08 xG
3rd 19:45COLV. Nichushkin0.12 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

29Shots on goal21

3.21Expected goals4.06

57Shot attempts48

175v5 shots on goal16

2/5Power play1/4

24Hits19

11Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways14

2Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.21 xGDAL 4.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL28 on goal, 4 scored

DAL20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	3	4	5	2	0	+1	0	26:55	6:24
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	27:21	6:24
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	24:50	6:20
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	22:54	5:39
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:15	0:53
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	13:46	1:38
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:46	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	11:38	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:54	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	7:07	0:54
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:09	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	-1	0	27:46	6:24
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	23:43	0:58
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:12	0:51
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:12	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	16:07	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	11	7	4	.636	21:47
S. Wedgewood	10	10	0	1.000	41:01	Win

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	24:14	5:10
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	22:12	5:21
J. Hryckowian	C	1	1	2	2	3	1	+1	2	20:22	1:38
M. Bourque	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	2	17:10	1:38
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	15:27	3:47
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	17:47	1:25
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:41	5:10
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:09	0:16
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	11:26	1:15
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	10:53	0:03
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:16	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	31:46	5:16
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	25:48	1:16
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	23:36	1:41
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:46	0:09
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:37	0:10
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	10:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	29	25	4	.862	64:36	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:22M. Necas15:57G. Landeskog15:01

Line 2B. Nelson10:24R. Colton11:48V. Nichushkin11:51

Line 3J. Drury9:48Z. Bardakov6:09P. Kelly9:34

Line 4J. Kiviranta8:56N. Roy8:31

Pair 1B. Kulak14:44S. Malinski15:04

Pair 2D. Toews16:14C. Makar13:46

Pair 3B. Burns13:47J. Manson13:11

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson14:26W. Johnston12:37R. Hintz8:22

Line 2M. Duchene10:59S. Steel12:23J. Benn9:29

Line 3J. Hryckowian13:48M. Bourque13:41A. Erne10:23

Line 4N. Bastian8:09O. Bäck7:39C. Blackwell7:49

Pair 1E. Lindell16:54M. Heiskanen16:16

Pair 2T. Harley16:47N. Lundkvist15:13

Pair 3L. Bichsel11:05I. Lyubushkin10:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202410 saves on 10, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, DAL 3.0	COL 5, DAL 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	COL 29.3, DAL 25.8	COL 29, DAL 21
Win chance	COL 52%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	2	1.40	3	39%	1
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	3	0.95	2	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.91	2	23%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	5	1.02	4	29%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	2	0.80	1	28%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	1	0.72	2	31%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.4	2	0.81	1	32%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.73	0	28%	0
DAL M. Bourque	2.1	1	0.44	2	19%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	3	0.62	1	26%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.9	0	0.31	0	6%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.33	0	8%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	2	0.35	0	15%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.7	2	0.59	2	8%	1
COL D. Toews	1.6	5	0.42	0	9%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.33	0	7%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	3	0.63	0	24%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	1	0.46	0	9%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	2	0.51	1	18%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.32	0	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	1	0.23	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.38	0	12%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.19	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.35	0	14%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	2	0.33	2	14%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	2	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	1	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.17	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.