Game Recap: COL 2, DAL 0, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

DAL0

COL beat DAL 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 1.83. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Hyry had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 17 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	0	2	2
DAL	0	0	0	0

3rd 10:39COLM. Necas0.11 xG
3rd 19:02COLN. MacKinnonEN0.68 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

22Shots on goal17

2.76Expected goals1.83

52Shot attempts43

205v5 shots on goal13

0/1Power play0/2

22Hits17

11Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways11

8Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.76 xGDAL 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL22 on goal, 2 scored

DAL17 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	21:19	1:32
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	20:47	1:34
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:30	0:27
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	21:38	1:10
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:43	0:28
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:17	0:46
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:52	1:33
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:32	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	10:15	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:51	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	23:53	1:14
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	21:07	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	+1	0	22:52	0:26
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:41	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:16	0:50
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	17	17	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	4	0	0	-2	0	24:52	3:42
W. Johnston	C	3	1	1	-2	0	22:08	2:46
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	-1	0	21:45	3:08
M. Bourque	C	2	2	1	0	2	19:51	1:13
M. Duchene	C	1	1	0	-1	0	17:23	2:45
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	2	0	0	16:43	1:13
O. Bäck	C	1	1	0	0	0	16:35	0:02
J. Benn	LW	0	1	0	-1	2	14:24	0:49
C. Blackwell	C	0	4	0	0	0	12:01	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	4	1	0	0	0	9:54	0:02
A. Erne	LW	0	1	2	-1	0	9:19	0:02
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	2	-1	0	23:51	2:48
T. Harley	D	1	1	0	0	0	22:24	1:12
E. Lindell	D	0	0	2	-1	0	19:10	0:16
L. Bichsel	D	0	1	0	-1	0	15:56	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	13:43	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	0	10:53	0:02
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	0	8:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	21	20	1	.952	58:17	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:55M. Necas18:28A. Lehkonen17:18

Line 2V. Nichushkin14:50B. Nelson18:23G. Landeskog13:31

Line 3N. Kadri12:19P. Kelly11:21J. Kiviranta9:30

Line 4J. Drury8:05L. O'Connor7:05R. Colton7:49

Pair 1D. Toews18:45S. Malinski21:52

Pair 2J. Manson17:53B. Kulak19:28

Pair 3B. Burns14:56N. Blankenburg11:57

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:54W. Johnston17:39J. Robertson19:27

Line 2M. Bourque18:32J. Hryckowian14:33O. Bäck15:31

Line 3J. Benn11:52M. Duchene12:55C. Blackwell11:02

Line 4A. Erne9:17A. Hyry8:56

Pair 1E. Lindell17:44M. Heiskanen18:13

Pair 2L. Bichsel15:06I. Lyubushkin10:51

Pair 3T. Harley20:19N. Lundkvist13:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20250 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202417 saves on 17, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, DAL 2.9	COL 2, DAL 0
Total goals	6.1	2
Shots on goal	COL 29.2, DAL 24.2	COL 22, DAL 17
Win chance	COL 54%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.38	1	39%	1
DAL J. Robertson	3.4	4	1.06	0	38%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	1.01	2	29%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.5	2	0.68	0	25%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	3	0.84	0	34%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	3	0.77	0	31%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	0	1.04	0	33%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	3	0.43	0	9%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	1	0.63	0	24%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.8	2	0.47	0	19%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.8	0	0.54	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.32	0	9%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.6	1	0.65	0	9%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	1	0.75	0	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.6	1	0.49	1	21%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	1	0.31	0	14%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	0	0.43	1	9%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	0	0.59	0	20%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.31	1	7%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.4	1	0.47	0	9%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	0	0.37	0	16%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.1	4	0.26	0	11%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	2	0.27	0	11%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.7	0	0.18	0	5%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.19	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.5	0	0.13	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.