Game Recap: COL 3, DAL 2, October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

DAL2

COL beat DAL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.93 expected goals to 2.59. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Seguin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. M. Blackwood stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	2	0	3
DAL	1	0	1	2

1st 11:32COLA. Lehkonen0.12 xG
1st 19:06DALT. SeguinPP0.12 xG
2nd 3:05COLM. Necas0.09 xG
2nd 16:14COLM. NecasPP0.23 xG
3rd 3:17DALR. Hintz0.15 xG

Team Stats

COLDAL

25Shots on goal26

2.93Expected goals2.59

47Shot attempts58

175v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play1/1

18Hits26

19Blocked shots6

24Penalty minutes18

20Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.93 xGDAL 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 3 scored

DAL25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	0	23:24	4:11
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	5	20:01	3:54
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	19:45	1:26
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	16:29	1:46
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	9:50	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:47	4:09
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	0	19:39	1:23
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:05	3:48
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:02	1:39
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:49	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	11:24	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:00	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	25:11	4:06
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	19:01	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:03	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	19:07	1:28
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:25	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Seguin	C	1	1	2	7	2	0	+1	0	17:17	1:22
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	22:18	1:22
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	5	16:30	1:22
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	21:37	1:22
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:28	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:41	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:42	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:40	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7	9:55	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	8:25	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	25:09	1:22
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	25:53	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	22:37	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:48	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:05	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:21	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	2:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	22	3	.880	58:08	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen16:58M. Necas17:39N. MacKinnon13:33

Line 2B. Nelson15:59G. Landeskog14:13N. Kadri16:37

Line 3N. Roy9:04P. Kelly12:09F. Svechkov10:47

Line 4J. Schwartz11:23T. Hughes9:17

Pair 1S. Malinski17:39D. Toews18:22

Pair 2B. Burns17:32J. Manson16:12

Pair 3B. Kulak16:00N. Juulsen12:36

DAL

Line 1J. Benn13:42J. Robertson18:09R. Hintz12:34

Line 2T. Seguin13:40M. Rantanen17:41S. Steel17:10

Line 3O. Bäck11:42A. Hyry10:37J. Hryckowian12:52

Line 4C. Blackwell8:25R. Faksa7:50

Pair 1T. Harley22:51N. Lundkvist16:59

Pair 2E. Lindell17:37M. Heiskanen16:46

Pair 3T. Myers10:51L. Bichsel13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 14 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-115	-105	2	Under
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	-140	+126	2	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	+125	-135	2	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+135	-170	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+130	-165	3	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-115	+100	1	Under
COL B. Burns	1.5	+105	-135	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-125	-105	5	Over
COL D. Toews	1.5	-111	+105	4	Over
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-130	+110	1	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-135	+120	1	Under
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-165	+135	2	Over
COL S. Malinski	1.5	-155	+120	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	+100	-115	0	Under

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+390	-475	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+460	-800	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+210	-250	2	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+255	-320	1	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+390	-600	1	Over
COL Z. L'Heureux	0.5	+1100	–	0	Under

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+265	-325	1	Over
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+100	-115	2	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+186	-225	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-118	+100	2	Over
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+200	-300	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+160	-190	2	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+146	-175	1	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-185	+160	1	Over
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+150	-205	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-130	+105	2	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	-190	+160	2	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-210	+170	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-102	-115	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-140	+115	1	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under

6 of 13 overs hit (46%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+165	-250	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+475	-525	1	Over
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+155	-170	1	Over
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+200	-215	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+125	-180	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+235	-325	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+225	-280	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DAL J. Oettinger	24.5	-118	-112	22	Under
COL M. Blackwood	21.5	-110	-115	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
COL D. Toews	1.5	+110	-155	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, DAL 2.9	COL 3, DAL 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	COL 29.0, DAL 25.0	COL 25, DAL 26
Win chance	COL 53%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	2	1.21	2	36%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	2	1.00	1	35%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.5	3	0.66	0	24%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	2	0.97	2	29%	2
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	0	1.10	0	34%	0
COL T. Hughes	2.2	1	0.47	0	17%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	2	0.78	1	28%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	1	0.64	1	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	0	0.37	0	8%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.8	1	0.70	2	11%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.8	1	0.56	1	25%	1
COL B. Nelson	1.7	5	0.52	0	24%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	2	0.31	0	8%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	7	0.50	2	20%	1
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.31	1	6%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.4	0	0.42	0	9%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.4	1	0.40	0	16%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	4	0.46	1	9%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.3	1	0.42	0	15%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	1	0.43	0	16%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	2	0.24	0	12%	0
COL Z. L'Heureux	1.1	0	0.18	0	8%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.30	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	3	0.34	0	15%	0
COL N. Roy	0.9	0	0.28	1	11%	0
COL F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.26	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
DAL T. Myers	0.9	1	0.17	0	3%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	3	0.19	0	8%	0
COL B. Kulak	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.22	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.6	1	0.15	0	5%	0
COL N. Juulsen	0.6	1	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.