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Game Recap
COL2
DET1
COL beat DET 2-1, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 2.53. A. DeBrincat had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Georgiev stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 10:48COLV. Nichushkin0.17 xG
- 2nd 2:44COLC. MakarPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 18:13DETL. Raymond0.14 xG
Team Stats
COLDET
25Shots on goal30
3.01Expected goals2.53
65Shot attempts59
245v5 shots on goal20
1/1Power play0/1
16Hits16
19Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways26
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.01 xGDET 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:28 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:21 | 0:28 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:28 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:28 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26:42 | 0:28 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 1:32 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:31 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:28 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 1:17 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:17 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:43 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:57 | 0:43 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:29 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:20 | 1:43 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:17 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.5, DET 3.0 | COL 2, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | COL 32.0, DET 26.7 | COL 25, DET 30 |
| Win chance | COL 58% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.6 | 2 | 1.57 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.2 | 1 | 1.30 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 2 | 1.25 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 2 | 1.06 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.6 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 9 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.5 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 1.02 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.6 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 5 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.