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Game Recap
COL4
NJD0
COL beat NJD 4-0, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.43. C. de Haan led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 4:07COLR. Colton0.18 xG
- 1st 14:52COLL. O'Connor0.05 xG
- 2nd 14:36COLA. Lehkonen0.22 xG
- 3rd 16:05COLP. KellyEN0.58 xG
Team Stats
COLNJD
24Shots on goal25
2.82Expected goals2.43
53Shot attempts59
195v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/3
12Hits19
19Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways8
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.82 xGNJD 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:51 | 3:19 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:12 | 3:35 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:35 |
| R. Colton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:14 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 3:35 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Prishchepov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:35 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:22 | 0:04 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:20 | 3:22 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:15 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:36 | 5:12 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:56 | 4:15 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 4:28 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 1:14 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:11 | 4:19 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 1:13 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:41 | 0:56 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:14 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:08 |
| N. Légaré | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:08 | 4:23 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 1:13 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:20 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 57:04 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.1, NJD 3.4 | COL 4, NJD 0 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | COL 28.3, NJD 30.2 | COL 24, NJD 25 |
| Win chance | NJD 55% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 6 | 1.38 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 6 | 1.28 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 0 | 1.14 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 5 | 1.09 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 4 | 1.04 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 1 | 1.11 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL N. Prishchepov | 0.4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.