Game Recap: COL 3, NJD 4 (OT), October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

Final/OTSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat COL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.57 expected goals to 3.40. S. Nemec led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Gritsyuk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Allen stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	2	0	1	0	3
NJD	2	1	0	1	4

1st 9:09NJDA. Gritsyuk0.12 xG
1st 9:48NJDJ. Hughes0.05 xG
1st 12:55COLV. Nichushkin0.22 xG
1st 17:03COLN. MacKinnon0.34 xG
2nd 12:51NJDC. Brown0.14 xG
3rd 13:55COLB. Nelson0.22 xG
OT 1:53NJDJ. Hughes0.19 xG

Team Stats

COLNJD

24Shots on goal24

3.40Expected goals2.57

71Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/1

22Hits20

17Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways15

7Takeaways11

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.40 xGNJD 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL24 on goal, 3 scored

NJD24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	21:39	2:32
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:33	0:23
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:47	2:35
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	17:40	0:27
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	14:39	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:54	2:35
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	23:55	2:31
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:22	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:10	0:23
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:30	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	0	0	27:38	2:44
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	24:36	0:14
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	0	0	15:29	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	19:41	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:34	0:26
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Miner	24	20	4	.833	61:53	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	22:43	0:58
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	2	18:49	0:58
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	18:01	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	0	1	5	3	0	+1	0	16:09	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:11	0:58
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:17	0:58
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:30	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:22	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:17	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:36	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	7:33	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	3	3	2	0	5	+2	0	23:35	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	19:31	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	25:06	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	24:43	0:58
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	22:10	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	6:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	24	21	3	.875	61:53	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas20:27N. MacKinnon17:41A. Lehkonen16:52

Line 2B. Nelson16:17V. Nichushkin13:45V. Olofsson11:15

Line 3G. Landeskog14:47J. Drury15:10R. Colton14:39

Line 4P. Kelly9:00Z. Bardakov6:54G. Brindley8:40

Pair 1D. Toews22:38C. Makar22:45

Pair 2B. Burns17:53J. Manson19:11

Pair 3S. Malinski15:18J. Ahcan11:58

NJD

Line 1A. Gritsyuk16:09T. Meier17:26N. Hischier16:12

Line 2O. Palat14:22J. Hughes19:50J. Bratt13:42

Line 3C. Brown16:37P. Cotter14:17D. Mercer14:27

Line 4S. Noesen7:33B. Halonen7:36L. Glendening6:36

Pair 1B. Dillon17:15S. Nemec21:27

Pair 2D. Hamilton22:01J. Siegenthaler20:27

Pair 3L. Hughes23:06B. Pesce6:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, NJD 2.9	COL 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	COL 29.3, NJD 26.3	COL 24, NJD 24
Win chance	COL 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	4	1.24	1	37%	1
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	2	1.06	2	36%	2
COL C. Makar	2.9	2	1.01	1	24%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	1	0.67	1	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	1	0.64	0	15%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	0	0.91	0	32%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	0	0.81	0	27%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	3	0.65	1	31%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	3	0.92	0	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	0	0.64	1	28%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	2	0.65	1	29%	1
COL B. Burns	1.9	3	0.36	0	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	0	0.57	0	26%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	2	0.44	1	20%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	2	0.57	0	24%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.42	0	19%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.30	0	7%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.5	5	0.39	1	12%	1
COL D. Toews	1.5	2	0.48	1	10%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	4	0.40	1	16%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	0	0.47	0	6%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	1	0.32	1	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	0	0.21	1	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.26	0	10%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.25	0	15%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	0	0.35	0	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	2	0.22	3	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.8	0	0.13	0	5%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.8	1	0.16	0	9%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.7	1	0.11	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.22	1	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.13	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.