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Game Recap
COL3
NJD4
NJD beat COL 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.46 expected goals to 2.33. A. Lehkonen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Meier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Allen stopped 31 of 34.
Team Stats
COLNJD
34Shots on goal41
2.33Expected goals3.46
77Shot attempts66
265v5 shots on goal35
0/1Power play0/1
15Hits18
14Blocked shots24
2Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways21
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.33 xGNJD 3.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:44 | 0:19 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 1:36 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:24 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:04 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:19 | 1:56 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:27 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:33 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Hughes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:37 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:34 | 1:56 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:04 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:04 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 40 | 37 | 3 | .925 | 56:24 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:22 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:18 | 0:16 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 2:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:22 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:07 | 2:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1A. Lehkonen15:05N. MacKinnon15:44J. Schwartz14:19
Line 2N. Kadri17:44G. Landeskog15:23B. Nelson15:19
Line 3P. Kelly13:59T. Hughes11:16F. Svechkov11:50
Line 4M. Necas17:50G. Brindley9:10
Pair 1B. Kulak20:14S. Malinski16:22
NJD
Line 1E. Rodrigues15:02A. Mantha14:49D. Mercer15:14
Line 2T. Meier14:20L. Evangelista14:20N. Hischier13:36
Line 3J. Hughes14:55J. Bratt11:50A. Gritsyuk11:03
Line 4C. Brown11:17C. Glass11:06J. Boqvist9:23
Pair 1D. Hamilton18:00J. Siegenthaler19:03
Pair 3J. Kovacevic16:13D. Chisholm15:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
11 of 19 overs hit (58%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | -106 | -110 | 3 | Under |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.5 | -111 | +110 | 5 | Over |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.5 | +138 | -170 | 1 | Under |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | +112 | -135 | 3 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | +136 | -160 | 2 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | +154 | -185 | 2 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 2.5 | +150 | -185 | 4 | Over |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | +135 | -175 | 4 | Over |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.5 | +110 | -130 | 2 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.5 | -115 | +105 | 8 | Over |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.5 | -118 | +110 | 2 | Over |
| COL B. Nelson | 1.5 | -140 | +120 | 1 | Under |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | +105 | -135 | 2 | Over |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | +115 | -135 | 2 | Over |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 1.5 | -135 | +125 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 1.5 | -120 | -105 | 3 | Over |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 1.5 | -170 | +140 | 6 | Over |
| COL M. Necas | 1.5 | -185 | +140 | 3 | Over |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | -105 | – | 0 | Under |
6 of 35 overs hit (17%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +380 | -600 | 1 | Over |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +230 | -270 | 2 | Over |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +400 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Burns | 0.5 | +1600 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Kulak | 0.5 | +2500 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +310 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| NJD B. Pesce | 0.5 | +2200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| NJD C. Brown | 0.5 | +450 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NJD C. Glass | 0.5 | +800 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Chisholm | 0.5 | +1700 | -5000 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +700 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Mercer | 0.5 | +380 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +525 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| COL F. Svechkov | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Brindley | 0.5 | +1000 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +410 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| NJD J. Boqvist | 0.5 | +1000 | -1200 | 1 | Over |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +320 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | +175 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.5 | +2200 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Manson | 0.5 | +1600 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +425 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.5 | +2500 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +320 | -370 | 1 | Over |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +525 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | +240 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +210 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Juulsen | 0.5 | +2200 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +330 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | +125 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| COL P. Kelly | 0.5 | +700 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| COL S. Malinski | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +260 | -320 | 0 | Under |
6 of 20 overs hit (30%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +260 | -330 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +200 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +250 | -260 | 1 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | -142 | +115 | 2 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +200 | -270 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Mercer | 0.5 | +330 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +215 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +260 | -310 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +250 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +125 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | -115 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +295 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +185 | -240 | 1 | Over |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +146 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | +120 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +145 | -185 | 1 | Over |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +172 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | -140 | +115 | 0 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +215 | -280 | 0 | Under |
9 of 20 overs hit (45%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 1.5 | +176 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 1.5 | +142 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +145 | -175 | 1 | Over |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +105 | -115 | 2 | Over |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +155 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +110 | -135 | 1 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | -165 | +165 | 2 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +145 | -165 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Mercer | 0.5 | +150 | -205 | 0 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +165 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +145 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +142 | -155 | 1 | Over |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | -145 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +155 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +100 | -125 | 2 | Over |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +100 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | -150 | +130 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | -135 | +125 | 1 | Over |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | -104 | -105 | 1 | Over |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +100 | -125 | 0 | Under |
0 of 19 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| COL B. Nelson | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| COL C. Makar | 0.5 | +165 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| COL D. Toews | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| COL G. Landeskog | 0.5 | +400 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +290 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | +225 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| COL J. Schwartz | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +280 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +300 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| COL M. Necas | 0.5 | +310 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +290 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. Kadri | 0.5 | +300 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
2 of 2 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL S. Wedgewood | 27.5 | -106 | -120 | 37 | Over |
| NJD J. Allen | 26.5 | -110 | -120 | 31 | Over |
2 of 3 overs hit (67%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD B. Pesce | 2.5 | +125 | -180 | 4 | Over |
| COL C. Makar | 1.5 | -115 | -125 | 4 | Over |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.5 | -160 | +115 | 1 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, NJD 2.8 | COL 3, NJD 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | COL 28.4, NJD 29.2 | COL 34, NJD 41 |
| Win chance | COL 55% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 5 | 1.34 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 3 | 1.05 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 8 | 0.51 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.8 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.2 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 6 | 0.57 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.1 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 2.0 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| COL T. Hughes | 1.9 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL J. Schwartz | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD A. Mantha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD D. Chisholm | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| COL N. Juulsen | 0.4 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.