Game Recap: COL 5, NYR 4, January 26, 2025

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalSun, Jan 26, 2025Every game that night

NYR4

COL beat NYR 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.75 expected goals to 4.35. NYR outshot COL 37 to 22. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Fox had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. M. Blackwood stopped 33 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	3	1	1	5
NYR	2	1	1	4

1st 5:43COLJ. Drury0.04 xG
1st 6:26COLC. Makar0.16 xG
1st 7:10NYRS. Carrick0.27 xG
1st 8:36NYRV. Trocheck0.15 xG
1st 14:36COLC. MakarPP0.06 xG
2nd 16:01COLJ. Parssinen0.08 xG
2nd 18:05NYRW. Borgen0.75 xG
3rd 15:02NYRA. Panarin0.49 xG
3rd 19:45COLA. Lehkonen0.22 xG

Team Stats

COLNYR

22Shots on goal37

2.75Expected goals4.35

61Shot attempts74

215v5 shots on goal34

1/2Power play0/2

16Hits16

17Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways16

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.75 xGNYR 4.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL22 on goal, 5 scored

NYR37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	-1	0	19:34	2:23
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	-1	0	18:35	2:23
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:30	2:23
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	17:37	2:23
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	2	14:52	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:37	0:00
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:47	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	13:46	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:58	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	10:10	0:00
C. Makar	D	2	1	3	2	0	2	0	2	25:36	2:23
K. Middleton	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	8:04	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	25:58	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	23:01	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:45	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	37	33	4	.892	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	23:57	3:07
V. Trocheck	C	1	1	2	4	3	2	+1	0	22:06	3:08
R. Smith	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	14:34	0:51
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	19:37	0:46
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	12:53	0:45
M. Rempe	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:49	0:00
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:29	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:01	3:07
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:54	3:15
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	15:35	0:53
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	11:04	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	9:07	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	17:12	0:07
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:35	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:11	1:04
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	5	2	3	+1	2	22:30	2:57
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:57	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	22	17	5	.773	59:45	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 2.9, NYR 3.2	COL 5, NYR 4
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	COL 29.8, NYR 28.9	COL 22, NYR 37
Win chance	NYR 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	1	1.33	2	36%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	5	1.16	2	34%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.90	3	18%	2
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	0.74	2	23%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	2	0.69	1	27%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	4	0.80	2	27%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.3	2	0.68	0	35%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.2	4	0.55	0	22%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.1	1	0.77	0	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	2	0.64	1	27%	1
COL D. Toews	2.0	4	0.53	0	10%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	1	0.45	1	21%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.8	0	0.74	1	18%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.8	4	0.58	2	21%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.7	3	0.32	0	15%	0
COL M. Wood	1.7	2	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	5	0.81	0	11%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.27	1	9%	1
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.29	0	6%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.31	0	12%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.3	0	0.52	1	15%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	2	0.35	0	8%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	1	0.32	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.26	0	6%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.23	1	5%	1
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.26	0	14%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.9	1	0.05	1	2%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.27	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	1	0.18	1	2%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.22	1	9%	1
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.17	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.