Game Recap: COL 5, OTT 1, March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

OTT1

COL beat OTT 5-1, with the chances close: 2.42 expected goals to 1.67. COL outshot OTT 33 to 16. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	4	1	0	5
OTT	0	0	1	1

1st 10:29COLN. MacKinnon0.13 xG
1st 11:28COLB. Nelson0.11 xG
1st 14:23COLC. MakarPP0.05 xG
1st 17:29COLJ. Kiviranta0.17 xG
2nd 1:54COLB. NelsonPP0.08 xG
3rd 15:59OTTD. CozensPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

COLOTT

33Shots on goal16

2.42Expected goals1.67

66Shot attempts53

265v5 shots on goal14

2/4Power play1/2

17Hits35

20Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways12

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.42 xGOTT 1.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL32 on goal, 5 scored

OTT16 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	16:37	4:05
B. Nelson	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	14:35	2:08
R. Colton	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	0	12:59	2:08
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:33	4:02
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:23	4:02
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:21	4:02
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	14:39	2:08
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:38	2:04
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	11:33	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	15:35	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:21	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	14:13	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	4	0	3	+1	0	21:08	4:01
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	2	18:15	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:51	2:09
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+2	0	19:04	0:01
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	17:49	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	16	15	1	.938	59:51	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	19:00	1:41
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	2	15:26	1:47
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	17:24	1:42
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	16:31	1:03
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:03	0:56
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	15:17	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:47	1:44
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	4	12:59	0:59
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:33	0:02
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	12:12	0:04
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:09	0:56
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:01	0:08
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	23:41	1:50
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	27:21	0:10
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-2	0	21:15	0:58
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:26	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	15:11	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	13	9	4	.692	17:29	Loss
A. Forsberg	20	19	1	.950	42:31

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamParker Kelly COL Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, OTT 3.0	COL 5, OTT 1
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	COL 29.2, OTT 28.1	COL 33, OTT 16
Win chance	COL 54%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	3	1.32	1	37%	1
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	2	0.78	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	0.96	2	22%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	0.82	1	26%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	2	0.75	1	32%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	3	0.67	2	29%	2
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	4	0.55	1	20%	1
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	2	0.74	0	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	0	0.94	1	27%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	0	0.53	0	23%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	0	0.53	1	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	1	0.48	0	10%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	2	0.65	1	29%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	1	0.68	0	23%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.51	0	10%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.7	0	0.56	0	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.45	0	19%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	1	0.36	2	17%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.4	1	0.35	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.46	0	22%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	3	0.26	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	0	0.19	1	5%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.2	1	0.56	2	15%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.2	0	0.16	0	5%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.1	0	0.37	1	16%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	1	0.08	0	2%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	1	0.10	0	2%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.0	1	0.24	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	3	0.20	0	9%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
COL E. Johnson	0.9	3	0.12	0	4%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	0	0.22	0	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	2	0.13	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	3	0.20	1	10%	1
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.