Game Recap: COL 2, OTT 5, January 28, 2026

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalWed, Jan 28, 2026Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat COL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.57 expected goals to 1.96. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Reimer stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	2	3	5

2nd 3:21OTTN. Cousins0.08 xG
2nd 14:05COLP. Kelly0.12 xG
2nd 14:22OTTR. Greig0.16 xG
3rd 2:06OTTC. Giroux0.11 xG
3rd 3:30COLV. Nichushkin0.21 xG
3rd 17:44OTTB. TkachukEN0.56 xG
3rd 18:53OTTT. StützleEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

COLOTT

18Shots on goal23

1.96Expected goals4.57

48Shot attempts45

155v5 shots on goal15

0/0Power play0/3

22Hits31

10Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes0

16Giveaways13

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 1.96 xGOTT 4.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL18 on goal, 2 scored

OTT23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	22:23	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	16:30	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	15:59	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	14:04	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	23:36	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	22:37	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	16:51	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:22	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	11:41	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:43	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:30	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4:42	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	27:22	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:45	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	20:55	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	20:52	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	21	18	3	.857	57:41	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	18:28	3:57
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	18:45	2:52
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	17:34	3:23
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	16:44	0:01
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:08	2:37
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	15:12	2:44
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	22:19	2:16
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	20:13	0:00
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:44	2:47
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:16	3:17
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
X. Bourgault	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5:12	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	+3	21:55	0:06
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	+2	24:43	2:51
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	21:24	3:09
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:04	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	15:06	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon21:10M. Necas20:38V. Olofsson13:34

Line 2A. Lehkonen15:27V. Nichushkin12:54B. Nelson18:17

Line 3P. Kelly10:50J. Kiviranta9:53Z. Bardakov4:42

Line 4J. Drury13:21G. Brindley8:43T. Makar5:30

Pair 1S. Malinski20:16C. Makar22:22

Pair 2B. Burns18:27J. Manson17:54

Pair 3K. Middleton9:43S. Girard14:44

OTT

Line 1S. Pinto18:58M. Amadio18:25N. Cousins16:43

Line 2C. Giroux13:40D. Batherson13:31T. Stützle13:17

Line 3B. Tkachuk11:27D. Cozens11:57R. Greig14:35

Line 4L. Eller8:14F. Zetterlund8:59X. Bourgault5:12

Pair 1J. Sanderson20:20A. Zub19:35

Pair 2N. Jensen16:59T. Chabot17:28

Pair 3J. Spence15:06T. Kleven13:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamParker Kelly COL Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20241 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, OTT 3.1	COL 2, OTT 5
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	COL 29.8, OTT 28.0	COL 18, OTT 23
Win chance	COL 60%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	1	1.65	0	43%	0
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	3	0.70	1	28%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	0	1.15	0	32%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	1.09	0	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	0	0.95	1	36%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	3	0.82	2	27%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	1	0.54	0	20%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	2	0.70	1	29%	1
COL V. Olofsson	2.0	2	0.60	0	25%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	0	0.69	0	27%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	1	0.66	1	24%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	2	0.40	0	7%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	0	0.50	0	23%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	1	0.55	1	10%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.42	0	10%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.41	1	16%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.6	2	0.45	1	9%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.39	0	8%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	4	0.56	1	19%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	1	0.31	0	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.32	1	13%	1
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.35	1	13%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.35	0	17%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.17	1	3%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	0	0.27	1	4%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	0	0.08	1	2%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	3	0.25	1	10%	1
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.32	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.22	2	4%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
COL T. Makar	0.8	0	0.10	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.21	1	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	1	0.23	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.