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Game Recap
COL3
Final/OTThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night
OTT4

OTT beat COL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.40 expected goals to 2.72. S. Pinto led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Ullmark stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
COL01203
OTT20114
  1. 1st 7:11OTTS. Pinto0.12 xG
  2. 1st 13:13OTTT. Stützle0.06 xG
  3. 2nd 18:04COLA. LehkonenPP0.23 xG
  4. 3rd 3:54COLP. KellySH0.02 xG
  5. 3rd 10:03COLG. LandeskogPP0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 16:04OTTD. Batherson0.46 xG
  7. OT 2:08OTTS. Pinto0.13 xG

Team Stats

COLOTT
29Shots on goal26
2.72Expected goals2.40
64Shot attempts51
195v5 shots on goal18
2/5Power play0/5
18Hits22
11Blocked shots24
10Penalty minutes10
19Giveaways14
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.72 xGOTT 2.40 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTOTT goal, 7:11OTT goal, 13:13COL goal, 18:04COL goal, 3:54COL goal, 10:03OTT goal, 16:04OTT goal, 2:08

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL29 on goal, 3 scored
OTT25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LehkonenLW101111-1021:183:19
N. KadriC011500-1221:145:21
B. NelsonC0111010017:420:45
G. LandeskogLW101440-1014:341:33
T. HughesRW0110300014:195:08
P. KellyC101101-1011:570:00
M. NecasC000110-1021:476:03
L. O'ConnorRW000000-1014:040:00
N. RoyC000111-2013:140:08
J. SchwartzLW0003110012:160:47
N. MacKinnonC000200-1011:333:23
F. SvechkovC000000027:150:07
D. ToewsD011010-1029:224:02
S. MalinskiD000413-1023:290:17
B. KulakD000211-1619:390:00
B. BurnsD000211-1017:210:00
C. MakarD000200-1013:572:33
N. JuulsenD0000310011:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood26224.84662:03OT loss
M. Blackwood000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. PintoC213203+2022:342:43
T. StützleC101404+1023:334:50
D. BathersonRW101621+2019:384:36
D. CozensC0113000216:584:51
F. ZetterlundLW011231+1213:302:29
M. AmadioRW0001310019:180:00
R. GreigC0001110017:220:29
C. GirouxRW000120+1214:532:16
S. HallidayC000140-1010:322:55
P. TomasinoRW000000+1010:211:48
S. BlaisLW000000007:120:09
H. HodgsonRW000011004:550:00
J. SpenceD011012+2019:200:10
J. SandersonD000224-1025:514:38
T. ChabotD000103+3225:102:42
A. ZubD0000110021:221:29
N. MatinpaloD000221+1012:510:00
T. KlevenD000001+1211:330:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark29263.89762:08Win
S. Ersson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen14:17M. Necas14:21N. MacKinnon7:47
Line 2J. Schwartz10:56B. Nelson11:30T. Hughes9:11
Line 3P. Kelly8:11L. O'Connor10:15F. Svechkov7:08
Line 4N. Kadri14:05G. Landeskog12:48N. Roy12:16
Pair 1D. Toews18:50S. Malinski18:20
Pair 2B. Kulak17:26C. Makar10:20
Pair 3B. Burns13:04N. Juulsen10:50

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio14:36R. Greig14:06C. Giroux12:27
Line 2D. Batherson12:43S. Pinto15:23P. Tomasino8:28
Line 3F. Zetterlund11:01D. Cozens12:07T. Stützle12:58
Line 4S. Blais7:03S. Halliday7:37H. Hodgson4:55
Pair 1T. Chabot20:08J. Spence17:59
Pair 2J. Sanderson14:50A. Zub14:51
Pair 3N. Matinpalo10:53T. Kleven9:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 21 overs hit (43%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5+113-1352Under
COL C. Makar2.5+110-1252Under
OTT D. Batherson2.5+140-1606Over
OTT D. Cozens2.5+135-1503Over
COL M. Necas2.5+140-1701Under
COL N. Kadri2.5+140-1555Over
OTT S. Pinto2.5+145-1882Under
OTT T. Stützle2.5+150-1654Over
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-120+1001Under
COL B. Burns1.5+120-1202Over
COL B. Nelson1.5+100-1151Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-135+1051Under
COL D. Toews1.5+115-1400Under
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-150+1222Over
COL G. Landeskog1.5+125-1354Over
OTT J. Sanderson1.5-155+1302Over
OTT P. Tomasino1.5+105-1200Under
OTT R. Greig1.5-110-1151Under
COL S. Malinski1.5+105-1154Over
OTT T. Chabot1.5-122+1001Under
COL T. Hughes1.5-140+1250Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.4, OTT 2.9COL 3, OTT 4
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalCOL 28.4, OTT 27.0COL 29, OTT 26
Win chanceCOL 57%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.421.31039%0
OTT D. Cozens2.430.64125%0
OTT T. Stützle2.440.98130%1
COL N. Kadri2.350.68125%0
COL C. Makar2.320.94022%0
COL T. Hughes2.200.61124%0
COL M. Necas2.210.98029%0
OTT D. Batherson2.160.78128%1
OTT S. Pinto2.120.61326%2
OTT F. Zetterlund1.920.40118%0
COL A. Lehkonen1.910.66129%1
OTT J. Sanderson1.820.64011%0
OTT C. Giroux1.710.60019%0
COL S. Malinski1.640.3807%0
OTT R. Greig1.610.44018%0
COL G. Landeskog1.640.56124%1
OTT T. Chabot1.610.4909%0
COL B. Nelson1.610.52124%0
COL J. Schwartz1.430.43018%0
COL D. Toews1.400.4719%0
OTT S. Halliday1.310.37015%0
COL B. Burns1.320.2605%0
OTT M. Amadio1.210.42018%0
COL P. Kelly1.210.34114%1
OTT J. Spence1.100.3116%0
COL B. Kulak1.120.2304%0
OTT T. Kleven1.100.2104%0
COL L. O'Connor1.100.28012%0
COL N. Roy0.910.31012%0
OTT A. Zub0.900.2704%0
COL F. Svechkov0.700.2509%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.720.1203%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.500.1005%0
COL N. Juulsen0.400.1302%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.