Game Recap: COL 3, PHI 2, December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

COL beat PHI 3-2, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.61. T. Konecny had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	1	0	3
PHI	1	1	0	2

1st 2:09PHIS. Couturier0.06 xG
1st 8:28COLB. Burns0.06 xG
1st 19:08COLB. NelsonPP0.29 xG
2nd 1:47COLV. Nichushkin0.08 xG
2nd 5:58PHIT. Konecny0.14 xG

Team Stats

COLPHI

28Shots on goal25

2.35Expected goals2.61

67Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play0/1

18Hits21

18Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways16

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.35 xGPHI 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL28 on goal, 3 scored

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	6	1	1	0	0	22:53	3:02
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	21:36	3:23
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	1	3	3	-1	0	19:18	1:04
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	15:22	0:39
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:04	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	10:21	0:20
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:08	2:45
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:32	3:04
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:41	0:35
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:40	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:45	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	25:51	3:25
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:53	0:18
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:28	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:44	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	0	16:43	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	8	2	2	+1	0	20:40	1:17
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	18:19	0:00
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	1	2	3	-1	0	17:40	0:43
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	15:30	1:16
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	19:30	1:14
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:45	0:44
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:09	0:46
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:53	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:25	1:16
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:20	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:27	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:58	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	21:59	0:46
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	10:11	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	25:53	1:14
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:16	0:44
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	22:10	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	28	25	3	.893	58:09	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:24M. Necas18:13A. Lehkonen17:08

Line 2B. Nelson16:41G. Landeskog14:21R. Colton15:06

Line 3J. Drury13:26V. Olofsson10:01V. Nichushkin13:27

Line 4P. Kelly8:03J. Kiviranta7:40Z. Bardakov4:45

Pair 1D. Toews18:26C. Makar20:10

Pair 2S. Girard16:43S. Malinski16:44

Pair 3B. Burns17:27J. Manson15:25

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak17:03T. Zegras16:37T. Konecny16:27

Line 2B. Brink15:11N. Cates14:53N. Grebenkin14:53

Line 3S. Couturier14:07M. Michkov11:42O. Tippett12:35

Line 4N. Deslauriers7:58G. Hathaway8:16R. Abols7:10

Pair 1N. Seeler19:43T. Sanheim20:35

Pair 2E. Andrae21:01J. Drysdale21:43

Pair 3E. Zamula12:45N. Juulsen9:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdaySean Couturier PHI Turns 33 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, PHI 2.7	COL 3, PHI 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	COL 29.4, PHI 26.1	COL 28, PHI 25
Win chance	COL 62%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	6	1.42	1	40%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	1	1.07	1	26%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	1	0.61	1	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	2	0.82	0	32%	0
COL M. Necas	2.3	2	1.00	1	29%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	0	0.64	0	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	8	0.73	1	26%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	2	0.65	0	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	2	0.76	0	28%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	2	0.64	1	28%	1
COL R. Colton	1.9	0	0.48	0	20%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	1	0.53	1	16%	1
COL B. Nelson	1.8	1	0.68	1	28%	1
COL B. Burns	1.7	3	0.38	1	9%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.7	2	0.49	0	18%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.5	1	0.42	1	19%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	1	0.33	0	7%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.43	0	16%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.38	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	3	0.51	1	11%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	3	0.43	1	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	3	0.29	0	8%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.33	1	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.2	1	0.17	0	10%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	0	0.21	1	3%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	3	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
COL S. Girard	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.10	0	6%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.21	0	7%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	1	0.08	1	1%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	0	0.20	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.