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Game Recap
COL6
PIT2
COL beat PIT 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 2.47. M. Rantanen scored three for COL. S. Wedgewood stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:31COLN. MacKinnon0.08 xG
- 1st 18:22COLM. Rantanen0.28 xG
- 2nd 5:46COLM. Rantanen0.04 xG
- 2nd 7:21PITC. Glass0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:53PITM. Bunting0.20 xG
- 3rd 3:23COLV. Nichushkin0.31 xG
- 3rd 12:21COLA. Lehkonen0.26 xG
- 3rd 15:08COLM. RantanenEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
COLPIT
27Shots on goal27
3.85Expected goals2.47
47Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/4
16Hits10
15Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
8Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.85 xGPIT 2.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 17:36 | 3:47 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:58 | 4:39 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 4:36 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 18:04 | 4:26 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:23 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:34 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 1:21 |
| G. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:35 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:05 | 4:27 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 2:12 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:56 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:44 | 4:03 |
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:41 | 4:04 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:38 | 3:57 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 4:02 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:44 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:20 | 4:01 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 4:11 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:15 | 3:44 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:02 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 4:16 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 59:21 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.5, PIT 3.1 | COL 6, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | COL 31.7, PIT 29.9 | COL 27, PIT 27 |
| Win chance | COL 56% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.4 | 3 | 1.55 | 5 | 40% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 4 | 1.23 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.0 | 5 | 1.31 | 5 | 40% | 3 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.5 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL G. Smith | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.