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Game Recap
COL2
TBL8
TBL beat COL 8-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.09 expected goals to 2.55. TBL outshot COL 33 to 25. B. Hagel led the way with 5 points (0 G, 5 A). I. Ivan had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TBL | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 5:41TBLN. Perbix0.14 xG
- 1st 7:46TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.11 xG
- 1st 8:56COLI. Ivan0.57 xG
- 1st 10:03TBLN. Kucherov0.05 xG
- 1st 13:15TBLL. GlendeningSH0.38 xG
- 1st 19:46TBLA. Cirelli0.26 xG
- 2nd 9:38TBLB. PointPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:08COLI. Ivan0.05 xG
- 3rd 3:09TBLJ. Guentzel0.30 xG
- 3rd 4:44TBLM. Eyssimont0.07 xG
Team Stats
COLTBL
25Shots on goal33
2.55Expected goals4.09
53Shot attempts64
225v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play2/2
22Hits11
13Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes6
26Giveaways24
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.55 xGTBL 4.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Ivan | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:53 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:51 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:51 | 5:42 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:00 | 5:42 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:32 | 5:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 4:39 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:07 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:07 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:07 |
| T. Tynan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:02 | 0:11 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:42 | 0:07 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:33 | 5:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:18 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:16 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 16 | 11 | 5 | .688 | 30:03 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 29:57 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:29 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:27 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:30 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:36 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:26 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:37 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:39 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:40 |
| N. Perbix | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 1:11 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:55 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.4, TBL 3.3 | COL 2, TBL 8 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | COL 30.0, TBL 27.8 | COL 25, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | COL 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 0 | 1.52 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 4 | 1.68 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 2 | 1.10 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 5 | 1.04 | 5 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 3 | 1.02 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 0 | 0.87 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.7 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.0 | 5 | 0.26 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL T. Tynan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.