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Game Recap
COL2
TBL4
TBL beat COL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 2.86. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 19:48TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 3:22COLP. Kelly0.22 xG
- 2nd 9:31COLB. Nelson0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:22TBLZ. Girgensons0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:31TBLB. Hagel0.13 xG
- 3rd 18:35TBLA. CirelliEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
COLTBL
33Shots on goal28
2.86Expected goals3.14
67Shot attempts65
225v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/2
20Hits21
19Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes18
19Giveaways12
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.86 xGTBL 3.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:59 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:37 | 2:59 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:54 | 2:49 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:30 | 2:50 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:55 | 1:10 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:02 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:09 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:01 |
| T. Makar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 5:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 26:04 | 2:41 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:01 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:19 | 1:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:02 | Loss |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:25 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:34 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:34 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 3:26 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:43 | 3:09 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 24:39 | 3:28 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:06 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 21:10 | 0:08 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:06 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon17:40M. Necas17:23A. Lehkonen15:26
Line 2B. Nelson16:02V. Nichushkin14:15G. Brindley13:47
Line 3R. Colton11:09J. Drury13:25V. Olofsson10:37
Line 4P. Kelly9:16Z. Bardakov7:23T. Makar5:29
Pair 2I. Solovyov12:53S. Malinski18:15
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde14:39P. Holmberg14:27Z. Girgensons12:59
Line 2D. James11:59N. Paul11:46O. Bjorkstrand10:25
Line 3B. Hagel14:25A. Cirelli11:13J. Guentzel13:45
Line 4N. Kucherov11:55B. Point12:21G. Goncalves10:49
Pair 1D. Raddysh20:20J. Moser20:50
Pair 2C. D'Astous19:55E. Cernak16:48
Pair 3M. Crozier13:47D. Carlile9:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, TBL 3.0 | COL 2, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.8, TBL 26.4 | COL 33, TBL 28 |
| Win chance | COL 53% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 5 | 1.30 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 0 | 1.25 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.3 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL I. Solovyov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.