Game Recap: COL 5, UTA 1, October 24, 2024

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalThu, Oct 24, 2024Every game that night

UTA1

COL beat UTA 5-1, with the chances close: 1.88 expected goals to 2.26. C. Mittelstadt led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Makar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Annunen stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	2	1	5
UTA	0	0	1	1

1st 9:54COLR. ColtonPP0.19 xG
1st 18:20COLC. Makar0.09 xG
2nd 14:25COLC. Mittelstadt0.14 xG
2nd 17:33COLI. IvanPP0.09 xG
3rd 15:28UTAL. Crouse0.19 xG
3rd 16:07COLJ. Kiviranta0.08 xG

Team Stats

COLUTA

26Shots on goal26

1.88Expected goals2.26

42Shot attempts58

205v5 shots on goal21

2/4Power play0/3

27Hits15

19Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways19

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 1.88 xGUTA 2.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 5 scored

UTA25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	18:16	5:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	21:29	5:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	0	13:17	0:43
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	20:57	4:58
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	17:00	0:00
I. Ivan	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:50	2:34
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	11:07	3:09
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	16:43	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:57	0:43
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:41	0:00
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:46	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	0	22:36	5:05
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	14:40	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:47	0:45
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	19:53	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	18:48	0:38
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	16:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	26	25	1	.962	59:49	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	2	14:29	1:29
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:10	1:40
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:39	4:22
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	18:56	4:20
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	18:28	4:20
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:55	4:23
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	13:50	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:20	1:39
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:31	1:38
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:44	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	2	20:30	0:11
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	23:38	4:09
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	19:40	0:09
M. Lamoureux	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	18:50	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-3	0	17:43	1:40
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	12:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	21	5	.808	60:00	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, UTA 3.2	COL 5, UTA 1
Total goals	7.0	6
Shots on goal	COL 32.4, UTA 28.5	COL 26, UTA 26
Win chance	COL 57%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.47	1	40%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.9	0	1.20	2	39%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	5	1.00	0	33%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	6	1.18	1	25%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	2	0.73	0	28%	0
COL R. Colton	2.3	3	0.65	1	27%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	1	0.89	0	27%	0
COL M. Wood	2.0	2	0.33	0	15%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	3	0.50	0	19%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.8	1	0.76	3	22%	1
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	1	0.55	0	19%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.49	1	22%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	4	0.68	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.65	0	12%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	0	0.38	0	10%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.56	1	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	1	0.43	0	9%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.3	1	0.50	0	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	1	0.35	1	7%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.1	1	0.23	2	11%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.1	0	0.35	0	4%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.40	0	7%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	0	0.32	0	13%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.0	1	0.27	1	9%	1
COL C. Haan	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	3	0.18	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	1
UTA J. McBain	0.9	0	0.36	0	13%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.21	1	4%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.7	0	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.