VAN beat COL 3-1, with the chances close: 2.40 expected goals to 2.66. K. Sherwood scored three for VAN. K. Sherwood had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. T. Demko stopped 30 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.66 xGVAN 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:14 | 6:05 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 5:35 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:01 | 6:03 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:41 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:02 | 5:35 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:55 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:53 | 2:05 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Felhaber | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:51 | 5:30 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:48 | 2:43 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:38 | 1:48 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 56:51 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sherwood | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 12:45 | 1:18 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:14 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:22 | 1:20 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:45 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:38 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:52 | 1:22 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:37 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:34 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:03 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:02 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:02 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:14 | 3:53 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:16 | 0:02 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:27 | 0:03 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:02 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:39 | 0:05 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, VAN 3.1 | COL 1, VAN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | COL 28.7, VAN 26.2 | COL 31, VAN 25 |
| Win chance | COL 51% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 4 | 1.40 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 2 | 1.19 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.6 | 4 | 1.00 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.6 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 2 | 1.04 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.9 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 7 | 0.49 | 3 | 20% | 3 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.