Game Recap: COL 5, VAN 4 (OT), November 9, 2025

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Game Recap

COL5

Final/OTSun, Nov 9, 2025Every game that night

VAN4

COL beat VAN 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.12 expected goals to 4.45. N. MacKinnon led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). Q. Hughes had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. M. Blackwood stopped 29 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	2	0	2	1	5
VAN	1	1	2	0	4

1st 6:41COLN. MacKinnon0.14 xG
1st 8:10COLN. MacKinnonPP0.14 xG
1st 11:47VANL. Karlsson0.32 xG
2nd 1:44VANK. Sherwood0.19 xG
3rd 0:28COLA. Lehkonen0.09 xG
3rd 7:26VAND. O'ConnorSH0.07 xG
3rd 9:47COLA. LehkonenPP0.31 xG
3rd 16:59VANJ. DeBruskPP0.13 xG
OT 1:08COLG. Brindley0.24 xG

Team Stats

COLVAN

32Shots on goal33

3.12Expected goals4.45

65Shot attempts70

265v5 shots on goal23

2/3Power play1/5

18Hits10

13Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways12

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.12 xGVAN 4.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL32 on goal, 5 scored

VAN33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	3	5	4	0	0	0	0	20:03	3:33
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	2	4	2	2	-1	0	17:40	1:56
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	-1	2	16:28	1:37
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	-2	0	19:49	3:33
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	2	14:48	3:28
G. Brindley	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	11:01	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:22	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:31	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	0	12:57	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:59	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:30	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	-2	2	27:34	3:13
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	20:24	0:05
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	24:41	0:20
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	19:18	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:10	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	33	29	4	.879	61:08	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	19:03	2:48
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:27	5:29
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:39	5:14
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+3	0	16:36	2:55
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:37	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	9:47	2:37
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:39	5:21
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	20:53	5:24
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:52	0:17
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:04	0:07
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:12	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:14	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	7	0	2	-1	0	27:56	7:10
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	24:14	2:52
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	21:26	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	2	21:06	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:41	1:06
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	27	5	.844	60:38	OT loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:24A. Lehkonen13:17M. Necas16:16

Line 2B. Nelson12:54R. Colton12:57V. Nichushkin12:50

Line 3P. Kelly7:45Z. Bardakov6:30G. Brindley10:13

Line 4V. Olofsson11:01J. Drury12:35G. Landeskog10:38

Pair 1D. Toews19:50C. Makar21:03

Pair 2B. Burns15:06J. Manson15:19

Pair 3S. Malinski13:37J. Ahcan11:10

VAN

Line 1E. Kane15:45C. Garland14:58E. Pettersson12:18

Line 2A. Räty13:39J. DeBrusk11:17D. O'Connor13:56

Line 3B. Boeser11:24L. Reichel10:12K. Sherwood11:58

Line 4M. Sasson10:57A. Bains9:14L. Karlsson7:10

Pair 1T. Myers18:43M. Pettersson18:24

Pair 2Q. Hughes20:16F. Hronek18:36

Pair 3E. Pettersson9:03T. Willander10:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDevon Toews COL Plays near home (born in Abbotsford)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, VAN 2.8	COL 5, VAN 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	COL 30.3, VAN 24.5	COL 32, VAN 33
Win chance	COL 61%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	4	1.35	5	37%	2
COL C. Makar	2.7	3	1.07	2	28%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.7	0	0.56	1	28%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	0	0.79	2	33%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	4	0.93	1	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	3	0.57	1	29%	1
VAN C. Garland	2.4	2	0.67	0	24%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.3	7	0.92	1	12%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	4	0.67	2	27%	2
COL V. Olofsson	2.1	2	0.58	1	24%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	2	0.59	1	26%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.0	2	0.68	0	28%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	2	0.65	1	29%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	4	0.82	0	29%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	0	0.37	1	9%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	4	0.40	0	16%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.6	2	0.57	0	22%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.30	0	9%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.34	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	1	0.25	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	1	0.51	0	11%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.32	1	14%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	1	0.47	1	6%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.27	0	4%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	3	0.35	0	15%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	3	0.23	1	9%	1
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.0	2	0.28	1	10%	1
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.30	0	3%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	0	0.27	0	7%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	1	0.11	0	6%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	1	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.