Game Recap: COL 4, VGK 2, October 31, 2025

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalFri, Oct 31, 2025Every game that night

VGK2

COL beat VGK 4-2, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.27. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 21 of 23.

Team Stats

COLVGK

26Shots on goal23

2.74Expected goals2.27

51Shot attempts66

225v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/6

16Hits14

22Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways15

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.74 xGVGK 2.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 3 scored

VGK23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	2	1	0	+3	0	19:57	1:47
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	+3	0	20:09	2:12
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:00	0:29
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	14:30	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:07	1:51
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	4	0	2	+3	0	17:47	0:25
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:11	0:25
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:10	1:35
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	11:45	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	4:00	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3:54	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	26:41	1:51
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	22:56	0:41
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	4	21:01	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:39	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	+1	0	16:10	0:04
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	11:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	-1	0	23:29	7:05
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	20:07	6:04
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	21:23	6:50
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	20:42	6:24
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	15:36	3:09
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:10	1:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:56	3:11
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:26	2:16
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	12:00	1:10
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:09	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:08	0:09
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:32	0:13
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	25:42	5:32
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	17:17	2:12
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:44	0:37
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:08	0:15
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	16:29	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	14:23	0:18

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	25	22	3	.880	59:39	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:53M. Necas17:06A. Lehkonen14:21

Line 2B. Nelson15:19V. Nichushkin13:20R. Colton12:03

Line 3G. Landeskog12:46J. Drury11:54V. Olofsson11:35

Line 4P. Kelly8:05Z. Bardakov3:54G. Brindley3:39

Pair 1C. Makar18:03D. Toews17:25

Pair 2B. Burns16:57J. Manson15:45

Pair 3S. Malinski13:58I. Solovyov11:27

VGK

Line 1M. Marner14:52T. Hertl13:50P. Dorofeyev14:05

Line 2I. Barbashev12:14J. Eichel12:53A. Holtz10:50

Line 3B. Howden11:59C. Reinhardt10:51K. Kolesar9:11

Line 4B. Saad9:37W. Karlsson9:50R. Smith10:38

Pair 1B. McNabb15:45S. Theodore17:35

Pair 2K. Korczak15:47J. Lauzon15:23

Pair 3B. Hutton15:05Z. Whitecloud14:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK Faces COL, his team until Mar 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, VGK 3.0	COL 4, VGK 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	COL 28.5, VGK 27.1	COL 26, VGK 23
Win chance	COL 51%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.28	1	36%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	3	1.07	0	32%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.0	0	0.64	0	32%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.91	2	21%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	1	0.71	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	2	0.86	3	27%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	2	0.72	2	27%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	4	0.63	0	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	2	0.66	1	28%	1
COL V. Olofsson	1.9	3	0.50	0	21%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.69	1	9%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.8	1	0.51	0	20%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	4	1.11	2	28%	1
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	2	0.58	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.31	1	7%	1
COL R. Colton	1.6	0	0.37	0	16%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.4	3	0.35	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	0	0.44	1	9%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.26	0	7%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	1	0.24	0	12%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.39	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	1	0.28	1	11%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	0	0.55	0	20%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	3	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	3	0.37	0	18%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	0	0.19	1	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.8	1	0.13	0	2%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.7	0	0.18	0	5%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.