Game Recap: COL 6, VGK 5 (SO), December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

COL6

Final/SOSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

VGK5

COL beat VGK 6-5 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 3.55. COL outshot VGK 39 to 25. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.0. S. Wedgewood stopped 20 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
COL	0	2	3	1	6
VGK	1	3	1	0	5

1st 2:43VGKA. Holtz0.08 xG
2nd 0:34VGKI. Barbashev0.20 xG
2nd 5:19COLS. Girard0.05 xG
2nd 10:27COLM. Necas0.05 xG
2nd 11:36VGKB. Hutton0.12 xG
2nd 12:05VGKB. Howden0.08 xG
3rd 3:52COLM. Necas0.03 xG
3rd 8:21COLN. MacKinnon0.52 xG
3rd 16:00VGKC. Sissons0.18 xG
3rd 18:03COLA. Lehkonen0.28 xG

Team Stats

COLVGK

39Shots on goal25

4.50Expected goals3.55

99Shot attempts46

335v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play0/3

16Hits21

8Blocked shots27

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways18

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.50 xGVGK 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL38 on goal, 5 scored

VGK25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	9	1	0	+2	0	25:28	0:55
M. Necas	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+3	0	21:09	1:33
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	23:52	1:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:36	0:25
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	20:04	0:44
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	7	0	0	-1	0	20:03	1:16
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:40	0:53
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	11:38	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	9:51	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	9:01	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:14	1:07
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	5:34	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	3	3	3	0	1	+3	0	19:11	0:00
S. Girard	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:41	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	25:39	1:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	24:39	1:07
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	2	18:37	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	17:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	25	20	5	.800	64:10	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Holtz	RW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	18:55	2:22
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	20:44	3:38
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	20:21	3:37
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	16:29	2:13
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	16:11	2:23
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:38	0:00
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	11:37	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	10:50	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:31	3:40
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:21	3:36
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:43	2:20
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:14	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+2	0	26:01	3:44
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	-2	0	23:13	0:11
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	0	20:51	2:01
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	3	6	-2	0	21:21	0:15
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	39	34	5	.872	65:00	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon21:13G. Landeskog17:31M. Necas17:02

Line 2B. Nelson16:38A. Lehkonen16:46V. Nichushkin14:43

Line 3V. Olofsson10:47R. Colton9:51G. Brindley7:07

Line 4J. Drury9:09P. Kelly6:51J. Kiviranta5:34

Pair 1D. Toews19:30C. Makar17:58

Pair 2S. Malinski17:48S. Girard15:46

Pair 3B. Burns15:09J. Manson16:27

VGK

Line 1P. Dorofeyev16:18A. Holtz15:52T. Hertl16:07

Line 2M. Stone13:59I. Barbashev13:21M. Marner12:56

Line 3R. Smith10:45B. Howden11:09B. Bowman10:23

Line 4B. Saad10:35K. Kolesar10:50C. Sissons10:59

Pair 1B. McNabb19:07K. Korczak19:16

Pair 2B. Hutton18:50N. Hanifin18:14

Pair 3J. Lauzon13:22Z. Whitecloud13:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK Faces COL, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, VGK 2.9	COL 6, VGK 5
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	COL 29.0, VGK 29.0	COL 39, VGK 25
Win chance	COL 53%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	9	1.39	3	40%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.0	2	0.57	0	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.6	1	0.67	1	28%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	0	0.92	0	21%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	3	0.82	1	30%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	7	0.66	1	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.2	4	0.91	2	26%	2
VGK M. Stone	2.1	0	0.85	0	26%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	3	0.73	1	30%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	3	0.43	2	9%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.60	1	26%	1
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	0.96	1	26%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	1	0.31	0	16%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	0	0.32	0	7%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	2	0.32	0	14%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	2	0.23	2	12%	1
COL D. Toews	1.4	3	0.42	0	8%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	3	0.27	3	5%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	2	0.23	1	6%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.50	1	20%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.38	1	19%	1
VGK B. Bowman	1.4	4	0.43	0	15%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	0	0.36	1	15%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.4	0	0.36	0	14%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.22	1	9%	1
COL J. Drury	1.0	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.24	1	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.22	1	9%	0
COL S. Girard	0.9	2	0.24	2	4%	1
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	0	0.11	1	3%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.