Game Recap: COL 2, WSH 1, November 21, 2024

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalThu, Nov 21, 2024Every game that night

WSH1

COL beat WSH 2-1, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 3.28. C. McMichael had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Georgiev stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
WSH	1	0	0	1

1st 17:04WSHP. Dubois0.05 xG
2nd 14:19COLM. RantanenPP0.07 xG
3rd 3:29COLM. Wood0.06 xG

Team Stats

COLWSH

27Shots on goal29

3.06Expected goals3.28

56Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play0/2

8Hits13

19Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways14

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.06 xGWSH 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL27 on goal, 2 scored

WSH27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:09	3:06
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:13	3:06
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:18	0:00
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	8:04	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:16	3:06
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	19:08	1:12
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:19	1:12
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:36	3:06
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:56	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:50	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:49	1:12
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	8:06	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	26:56	2:52
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	24:14	1:26
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	19:25	1:12
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	19:02	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:55	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	21:55	3:16
P. Dubois	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:15	0:42
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	+1	2	20:13	3:01
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:39	3:16
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:59	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	14:34	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:09	0:43
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:20	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:57	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:12	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:57	1:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:33	0:44
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:26	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	24:26	3:15
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	24:16	3:12
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:43	0:48
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	17:21	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	17:14	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	27	25	2	.926	57:33	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, WSH 3.0	COL 2, WSH 1
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	COL 30.1, WSH 26.4	COL 27, WSH 29
Win chance	COL 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.58	0	40%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.0	2	1.24	1	39%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	3	1.02	1	25%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	1	0.86	0	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.6	4	0.89	0	32%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	1	0.62	1	26%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	6	0.59	0	26%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	1	0.66	0	13%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	1.9	3	0.45	0	12%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.8	1	0.75	0	20%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	0	0.52	0	12%	0
COL M. Wood	1.7	5	0.29	1	12%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.7	1	0.90	0	26%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	3	0.61	1	22%	1
COL J. Drouin	1.6	2	0.77	1	18%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	1	0.54	0	14%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.5	0	0.43	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.30	0	9%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	2	0.46	0	19%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.3	2	0.28	0	13%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	2	0.29	0	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.32	0	6%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.22	1	10%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.2	2	0.28	1	4%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	3	0.36	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.41	0	19%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.0	0	0.20	0	7%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	1.0	1	0.35	0	12%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	0	0.41	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	2	0.27	0	7%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.29	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.