Game Recap: DAL 5, BOS 2, October 24, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL5

FinalThu, Oct 24, 2024Every game that night

BOS2

DAL beat BOS 5-2, with the chances close: 3.46 expected goals to 3.06. M. Duchene led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. C. DeSmith stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	3	1	5
BOS	1	1	0	2

1st 11:57BOSD. Pastrnak0.30 xG
1st 16:20DALM. Duchene0.11 xG
2nd 0:31DALJ. RobertsonPP0.17 xG
2nd 4:57DALL. StankovenPP0.11 xG
2nd 8:59DALT. SeguinPP0.11 xG
2nd 10:41BOSJ. BrazeauPP0.16 xG
3rd 17:58DALR. HintzEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

DALBOS

32Shots on goal27

3.46Expected goals3.06

54Shot attempts57

215v5 shots on goal19

3/5Power play1/4

18Hits29

9Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes10

19Giveaways21

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.46 xGBOS 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL31 on goal, 5 scored

BOS27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	0	15:21	1:42
T. Seguin	C	1	2	3	1	0	1	+2	0	15:02	1:14
M. Marchment	LW	0	2	2	1	4	0	0	0	16:01	1:45
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	19:24	4:01
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:18	3:33
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	4	15:02	3:24
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:05	1:22
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	18:15	3:30
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:12	0:05
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	11:13	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	24:06	3:57
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:55	1:15
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:27	0:24
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:15	0:03
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:02	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	27	25	2	.926	59:56	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	4	19:49	4:25
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	15:20	1:47
M. Poitras	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:33	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	13:14	2:35
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:40	2:35
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:27	3:31
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:37	3:29
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	4	17:52	3:37
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	15:28	2:38
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:21	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	12:09	0:07
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:02	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:59	3:16
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:45	2:12
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	19:08	0:01
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:36	0:45
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	17:56	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:29	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	31	27	4	.871	58:06	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownColin Blackwell DAL Plays near home (born in North Andover)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, BOS 2.8	DAL 5, BOS 2
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	DAL 29.4, BOS 26.4	DAL 32, BOS 27
Win chance	DAL 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	7	0.99	1	39%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	5	0.68	0	28%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.7	4	0.86	1	30%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	1	0.57	3	22%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	1	0.61	1	10%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	4	0.74	1	29%	1
DAL L. Stankoven	2.1	3	0.50	1	15%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.0	2	0.73	0	25%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.9	0	0.64	1	20%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	1	0.50	2	19%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	1	0.64	0	21%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	2	0.59	3	23%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.59	0	23%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	1	0.43	1	10%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	1	0.50	0	10%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.5	2	0.40	0	14%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.39	1	18%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.34	0	6%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.4	3	0.51	0	19%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	0	0.29	0	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.3	3	0.37	1	15%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	0	0.23	0	11%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	2	0.24	0	6%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.2	2	0.28	1	14%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	2	0.27	0	12%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.2	0	0.30	0	12%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.28	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	2	0.19	0	4%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.9	0	0.27	0	14%	0
BOS M. Poitras	0.9	1	0.33	1	11%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.12	0	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.16	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.