Game Recap: DAL 3, BOS 6, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

BOS6

BOS beat DAL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.75 expected goals to 2.19. BOS outshot DAL 24 to 16. V. Arvidsson scored three for BOS. V. Arvidsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Korpisalo stopped 13 of 16.

Team Stats

DALBOS

16Shots on goal24

2.19Expected goals3.75

37Shot attempts50

145v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/2

24Hits24

12Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways20

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.19 xGBOS 3.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL16 on goal, 3 scored

BOS22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	1	2	3	-1	0	23:04	4:11
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	-3	2	21:26	5:19
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	22:25	4:43
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	2	17:12	1:55
M. Duchene	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	16:25	3:57
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:15	1:10
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:22	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:16	1:12
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:29	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	12:03	0:01
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:29	0:00
C. Hughes	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:34	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-2	0	25:03	4:02
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:39	1:19
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:14	0:02
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:53	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	15:12	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	22	18	4	.818	58:10	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	18:27	2:57
V. Arvidsson	LW	3	0	3	5	0	0	+1	2	14:20	1:55
E. Lindholm	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:55	2:01
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:46	1:57
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:02	2:04
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:26	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:22	1:47
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:43	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:29	1:52
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:25	0:59
H. Jokiharju	D	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	16:47	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+2	0	22:41	2:50
J. Aspirot	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:22	0:13
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	21:15	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	2	19:10	1:05
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	7	1	-1	2	18:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	16	13	3	.813	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:56W. Johnston18:07J. Benn14:36

Line 2M. Bourque13:05J. Robertson15:21M. Duchene11:44

Line 3O. Bäck9:54A. Hyry10:18C. Hughes6:34

Line 4C. Blackwell11:11J. Hryckowian10:44A. Erne11:29

Pair 1N. Lundkvist17:51T. Harley19:52

Pair 2E. Lindell16:39M. Heiskanen16:46

Pair 3I. Lyubushkin13:51L. Bichsel14:47

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:30F. Minten13:16M. Khusnutdinov12:35

Line 2P. Zacha13:04C. Mittelstadt12:51V. Arvidsson11:41

Line 3S. Kuraly12:45M. Kastelic10:55T. Jeannot11:30

Line 4M. Geekie12:56L. Reichel11:24E. Lindholm11:00

Pair 1N. Zadorov16:35A. Peeke17:59

Pair 2C. McAvoy17:02J. Aspirot16:24

Pair 3H. Lindholm15:59H. Jokiharju16:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownColin Blackwell DAL Plays near home (born in North Andover)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, BOS 2.9	DAL 3, BOS 6
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	DAL 26.4, BOS 26.2	DAL 16, BOS 24
Win chance	DAL 52%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.6	2	1.08	2	37%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	3	1.26	3	40%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	1	0.86	2	34%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	0	1.07	1	33%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	5	0.61	3	22%	3
DAL M. Bourque	2.1	0	0.51	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	0	0.67	1	27%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	0	0.70	1	10%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	1	0.68	1	12%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	2	0.79	1	26%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	2	0.60	2	21%	1
BOS F. Minten	1.7	0	0.50	0	21%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	0	0.52	0	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.63	1	20%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	4	0.62	1	21%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	0	0.37	0	7%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	2	0.27	0	7%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	0	0.21	0	10%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.41	0	16%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	2	0.25	0	10%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	2	0.54	0	17%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	2	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	1	0.36	1	14%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	1	0.32	0	6%	0
BOS L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.30	0	11%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	2	0.22	2	3%	1
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	0	0.23	1	5%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.