Game Recap: DAL 2, BUF 4, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL2

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat DAL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 2.88. O. Power led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Heiskanen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. U. Luukkonen stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	0	2	2
BUF	0	2	2	4

2nd 12:21BUFP. Krebs0.61 xG
2nd 13:44BUFR. McLeod0.18 xG
3rd 4:17BUFT. Thompson0.11 xG
3rd 15:24DALT. Harley0.03 xG
3rd 17:48DALT. Seguin0.44 xG
3rd 19:49BUFA. TuchEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

DALBUF

30Shots on goal25

2.88Expected goals4.10

72Shot attempts52

235v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play0/1

20Hits17

16Blocked shots27

2Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways16

8Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.88 xGBUF 4.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL29 on goal, 2 scored

BUF24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Dadonov	LW	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	14:08	0:00
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:05	2:46
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:57	3:14
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:31	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	21:19	2:50
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	19:25	3:10
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	19:19	3:05
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	18:19	2:52
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:47	3:05
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:08	2:53
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	12:56	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:22	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	22:31	2:42
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	7	0	2	-3	0	26:23	3:05
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:10	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	15:39	0:05
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	14:28	0:13
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	24	21	3	.875	54:30	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	0	18:08	0:29
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:48	1:31
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	18:35	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:32	1:31
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	10:06	0:29
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:18	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	2	5	+1	0	19:27	0:00
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:15	1:31
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:06	1:31
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:42	0:29
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:33	0:29
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:21	0:00
O. Power	D	0	3	3	1	0	4	+1	0	21:16	0:29
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	+1	2	23:39	1:31
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:42	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	18:55	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:55	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	4	5	+1	2	15:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.3, BUF 2.9	DAL 2, BUF 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	DAL 28.9, BUF 28.8	DAL 30, BUF 25
Win chance	DAL 55%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	3	0.84	2	35%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	4	0.79	0	31%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	3	0.96	0	33%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.5	1	0.59	0	25%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	3	0.78	2	27%	1
BUF D. Cozens	2.4	4	0.57	0	21%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	5	0.56	0	14%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.4	1	0.65	1	25%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.47	1	20%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.84	0	32%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	7	0.69	0	12%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	0	0.30	0	15%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.0	3	0.57	0	17%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.9	0	0.74	0	23%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.68	1	26%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	1	0.57	0	22%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	1	0.48	1	11%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	0	0.49	0	18%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.6	1	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.5	1	0.44	2	16%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.35	3	7%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	1	0.27	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	3	0.29	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.33	1	15%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.37	0	11%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	0	0.20	1	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.32	0	11%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.8	1	0.23	1	8%	1
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.16	1	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.