CAR beat DAL 6-4, with the chances close: 4.08 expected goals to 3.65. CAR outshot DAL 34 to 19. S. Aho led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Slavin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Martin stopped 15 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
- 1st 0:18DALT. Seguin0.60 xG
- 1st 6:36CARS. JarvisSH0.20 xG
- 1st 10:15DALT. Harley0.15 xG
- 2nd 7:13DALM. Marchment0.20 xG
- 3rd 1:10CARS. Aho0.14 xG
- 3rd 3:43CARB. Burns0.03 xG
- 3rd 8:09CARS. GostisbeherePP0.12 xG
- 3rd 14:46DALM. Heiskanen0.03 xG
- 3rd 17:53CARM. NecasPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:45CARA. SvechnikovEN0.83 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.65 xGCAR 4.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:02 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:17 | 3:18 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:08 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:37 | 2:44 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:08 | 2:18 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:41 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:37 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:37 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:08 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:12 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:14 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:28 | 3:55 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 1:43 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:37 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:01 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:45 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 58:31 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:36 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:36 |
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:36 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 1:36 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:52 | 1:36 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.8, CAR 3.1 | DAL 4, CAR 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.6, CAR 31.6 | DAL 19, CAR 34 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Necas | 2.6 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 4 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.