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Game Recap
DAL3
FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night
CAR6

CAR beat DAL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 3.30. CAR outshot DAL 33 to 23. A. Svechnikov led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). S. Jarvis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. B. Bussi stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DAL1023
CAR3216
  1. 1st 7:19CARK. Miller0.13 xG
  2. 1st 11:53DALJ. RobertsonPP0.32 xG
  3. 1st 13:32CARS. GostisbeherePP0.06 xG
  4. 1st 18:56CARL. Stankoven0.15 xG
  5. 2nd 5:17CARK. Miller0.09 xG
  6. 2nd 6:59CARS. JarvisPP0.12 xG
  7. 3rd 0:36DALM. Rantanen0.17 xG
  8. 3rd 8:18CARW. Carrier0.59 xG
  9. 3rd 18:11DALW. JohnstonPP0.58 xG

Team Stats

DALCAR
23Shots on goal33
3.30Expected goals4.50
50Shot attempts65
195v5 shots on goal27
2/3Power play2/5
29Hits28
10Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways19
5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.30 xGCAR 4.50 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdCAR goal, 7:19DAL goal, 11:53CAR goal, 13:32CAR goal, 18:56CAR goal, 5:17CAR goal, 6:59DAL goal, 0:36CAR goal, 8:18DAL goal, 18:11

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL23 on goal, 3 scored
CAR32 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. RobertsonLW1232010219:424:02
M. RantanenRW112300-3220:243:41
W. JohnstonC101320-2018:303:47
R. HintzC000351-1216:173:24
M. DucheneC000000-3015:350:38
M. BourqueC0000300014:350:15
S. SteelC0002110014:000:00
C. BlackwellC0000000013:200:00
R. FaksaC0001310012:480:00
O. BäckC0000000012:380:00
J. HryckowianC0001300011:560:00
A. ErneLW000021026:570:00
T. HarleyD000320-2022:500:40
M. HeiskanenD0000100022:473:22
E. LindellD0002010021:090:21
I. LyubushkinD000123-2019:320:00
A. PetrovicD000131-2016:270:00
N. LundkvistD0001200213:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger15105.66726:59Loss
C. DeSmith18171.94432:56

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. SvechnikovRW044241+1018:534:47
N. EhlersLW033101+2015:454:47
S. JarvisC1126400018:014:49
S. AhoC011200+2216:454:49
L. StankovenC101100+1015:432:04
W. CarrierLW101341+1411:550:00
J. StaalC0001100017:051:35
T. HallLW000211+1016:452:05
J. BlakeRW000301+1016:452:10
J. MartinookLW0000210015:420:00
E. RobinsonLW0000100011:470:00
N. PhilpC000140007:380:00
K. MillerD213200+3020:200:58
S. GostisbehereD1014130021:314:58
J. ChatfieldD011221+1020:050:11
S. WalkerD000132+2019:560:00
J. NystromD0001000016:170:00
A. NikishinD0001100015:241:17
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi23213.91359:41Win
F. Andersen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:19W. Johnston14:19M. Duchene14:35
Line 2R. Hintz12:51J. Robertson15:34M. Bourque13:38
Line 3R. Faksa9:38O. Bäck10:12C. Blackwell10:17
Line 4J. Hryckowian10:41S. Steel11:25A. Erne6:23
Pair 1E. Lindell15:14M. Heiskanen16:43
Pair 2N. Lundkvist13:36I. Lyubushkin16:36
Pair 3A. Petrovic14:57T. Harley20:22

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven13:39J. Blake14:31T. Hall14:29
Line 2J. Staal12:07S. Jarvis12:22J. Martinook12:49
Line 3A. Svechnikov13:47S. Aho11:32N. Ehlers10:36
Line 4W. Carrier11:55E. Robinson11:08N. Philp7:06
Pair 1K. Miller17:23S. Walker17:56
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere16:18J. Chatfield17:43
Pair 3A. Nikishin14:05J. Nystrom13:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamLogan Stankoven CAR Faces DAL, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 SOG
  • Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces CAR, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDAL 2.7, CAR 3.0DAL 3, CAR 6
Total goals5.89
Shots on goalDAL 22.1, CAR 31.3DAL 23, CAR 33
Win chanceCAR 56%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.021.06336%1
CAR S. Jarvis2.960.88232%1
CAR N. Ehlers2.610.80327%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.520.74425%0
CAR S. Aho2.420.92132%0
CAR S. Walker2.410.2809%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.231.08232%1
DAL W. Johnston2.130.84131%1
CAR J. Blake2.030.55022%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.010.43116%1
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.840.65111%1
DAL R. Hintz1.830.77028%0
CAR T. Hall1.820.51019%0
DAL M. Heiskanen1.700.61010%0
DAL M. Bourque1.600.37015%0
CAR K. Miller1.520.3638%2
CAR J. Chatfield1.520.2317%0
CAR A. Nikishin1.510.3308%0
CAR E. Robinson1.400.33014%0
DAL M. Duchene1.400.62022%0
CAR J. Staal1.410.41016%0
CAR J. Martinook1.400.40015%0
CAR W. Carrier1.330.24112%1
DAL T. Harley1.230.4109%0
CAR J. Nystrom1.110.2102%0
DAL C. Blackwell1.000.2209%0
DAL N. Lundkvist0.910.2004%0
DAL J. Hryckowian0.910.30012%0
CAR N. Philp0.910.1708%0
DAL S. Steel0.920.30010%0
DAL E. Lindell0.820.2806%0
DAL A. Petrovic0.810.1403%0
DAL A. Erne0.700.1808%0
DAL R. Faksa0.710.2607%0
DAL O. Bäck0.600.2107%0
DAL I. Lyubushkin0.510.1502%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.