Game Recap: DAL 1, CBJ 2 (SO), November 5, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL1

Final/SOThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night

CBJ2

CBJ beat DAL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.44. E. Lindell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Talbot stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	0	0	1	0	1
CBJ	0	0	1	1	2

3rd 6:27DALM. Rantanen0.15 xG
3rd 16:46CBJZ. Werenski0.04 xG

Team Stats

DALCBJ

28Shots on goal30

2.44Expected goals2.64

60Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/2

22Hits24

18Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

25Giveaways16

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.44 xGCBJ 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL26 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	19:15	1:13
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:13	1:13
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	20:30	1:13
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:49	1:04
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:43	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:09	0:56
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:22	0:47
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:16	0:47
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:50	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:41	0:47
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:07	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	+1	0	28:31	1:13
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	-1	0	26:05	0:47
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:06	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	3	5	0	2	19:50	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	18:06	0:00
T. Taylor	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	30	29	1	.967	65:00	OT loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:03	2:45
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	19:18	2:46
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	23:09	2:45
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	20:28	2:24
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:51	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:24	1:35
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	18:08	1:14
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	17:46	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:24	1:16
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:51	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	5:41	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	5:06	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	29:21	2:41
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	25:43	1:19
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:19	0:57
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+1	0	21:49	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:23	0:18
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	28	27	1	.964	65:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1R. Hintz14:38J. Robertson16:11A. Hyry13:35

Line 2M. Rantanen15:27W. Johnston15:19J. Benn14:29

Line 3T. Seguin13:05J. Hryckowian12:25J. Kiviranta11:12

Line 4D. Perron10:54R. Faksa9:54C. Blackwell8:15

Pair 1T. Harley21:43N. Lundkvist19:35

Pair 2E. Lindell19:10L. Bichsel16:59

Pair 3T. Myers17:15T. Taylor9:54

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier17:18C. Sillinger16:39C. Coyle17:25

Line 2M. Knies15:11K. Johnson14:05A. Fantilli14:09

Line 3V. Nichushkin15:08C. Garland14:08S. Monahan14:43

Line 4D. Voronkov5:41L. Belluz5:51R. Lomberg5:06

Pair 1D. Severson19:40Z. Werenski23:22

Pair 2I. Provorov20:46D. Mateychuk19:20

Pair 3D. Fabbro11:09J. Christiansen10:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 22 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	+105	-125	5	Over
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	-145	+125	3	Over
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	+120	-130	2	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.5	-130	+105	5	Over
DAL A. Hyry	1.5	+105	-120	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-125	-105	1	Under
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+110	-140	1	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	+100	-130	1	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	+125	-155	1	Under
DAL D. Perron	1.5	+110	–	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	+115	–	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	+115	-150	2	Over
DAL J. Benn	1.5	+100	–	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-145	+125	3	Over
CBJ M. Knies	1.5	+106	-125	1	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+100	-130	4	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	1.5	-180	+143	1	Under
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-146	+130	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+110	-140	1	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-130	+120	5	Over
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	+100	-130	3	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	+115	-130	1	Under

2 of 35 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+525	-700	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+300	-440	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.5	+1400	-5000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL D. Perron	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+141	-175	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+775	-2000	0	Under
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+290	-420	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+230	-300	1	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+480	-650	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+370	-650	1	Over

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+175	-190	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+120	-130	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+210	-210	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+215	-265	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-105	-111	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+112	-135	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+250	-310	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+150	-165	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-108	-110	0	Under

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	-130	+115	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	-120	-105	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-220	+185	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-108	-111	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+100	-125	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-200	+160	1	Over
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+165	-185	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-164	+140	1	Over

0 of 13 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+260	-325	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+350	-525	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+180	-190	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+300	-350	Under
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+310	-400	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+160	-200	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+280	-325	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+185	-280	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+220	-235	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+210	-290	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DAL C. DeSmith	22.5	-113	-110	29	Over
CBJ C. Talbot	21.5	-114	-105	27	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, CBJ 2.8	DAL 1, CBJ 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	DAL 24.8, CBJ 25.4	DAL 28, CBJ 30
Win chance	DAL 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	5	1.04	1	21%	1
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	3	1.08	0	38%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	5	0.78	0	31%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	2	0.90	1	35%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.0	1	1.07	1	33%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	0	0.80	0	28%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	5	0.53	0	13%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	3	0.64	1	22%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.8	3	0.39	0	18%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.66	0	22%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.6	1	0.70	1	25%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.6	1	0.54	0	23%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	3	0.53	0	22%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	2	0.36	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.42	0	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	4	0.42	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	1	0.39	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.4	1	0.41	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.4	1	0.50	0	18%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	0	0.52	0	18%	0
DAL D. Perron	1.3	0	0.38	0	17%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.45	0	10%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	5	0.31	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.8	2	0.13	0	7%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.8	2	0.17	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.16	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.15	0	5%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.22	0	7%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.6	0	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.