DAL beat CGY 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.58 expected goals to 4.30. CGY outshot DAL 48 to 19. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Weegar had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. C. DeSmith stopped 46 of 48.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 7:09DALR. Hintz0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:12CGYN. Kadri0.07 xG
- 2nd 12:55DALW. Johnston0.45 xG
- 2nd 14:11DALM. Granlund0.22 xG
- 3rd 0:16CGYN. KadriPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 13:22DALM. Rantanen0.24 xG
- 3rd 18:11DALM. DucheneEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.58 xGCGY 4.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 12 | 16:40 | 2:14 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:11 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:35 | 2:15 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:49 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:44 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:48 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:35 | 1:36 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:46 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 24:23 | 3:11 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:37 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:49 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 48 | 46 | 2 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:09 | 5:39 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 4:24 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 4:26 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:10 | 2:31 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:46 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:49 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 4:31 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:03 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:34 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 10 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 25:56 | 4:36 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 23:18 | 2:43 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:03 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.1, CGY 3.1 | DAL 5, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.7, CGY 30.9 | DAL 19, CGY 48 |
| Win chance | CGY 50% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 4 | 0.89 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.94 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 7 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 1.7 | 5 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 5 | 0.37 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.